Saturday, October 18, 2014

Fiscal 4Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $97.67, AAPL is trading at a 12.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.6x ex-cash). A strong iPhone launch is providing some upside to my numbers, while iPad/Mac growth trajectory remains flat/moderate as expected (with Mac slightly better than iPad). We'll see in January if the new iPads can boost things a bit. Again, not modeling anything on Apple Watch at least until I have some more visibility, particularly on pricing.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     39,850     1.31
Apple guide low        37,000     1.12*  37.0
Apple guide high       40,000     1.32*  38.0
Deagol estimates       40,800     1.38   38.5 (5.99b shares)

3mo ending Dec-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     63,520     2.40
Apple guide low (e)    59,000     2.18*  38.0
Apple guide high(e)    63,000     2.46*  39.0
Deagol estimates       64,344     2.55   39.4 (5.95b shares)

*EPS guidance range derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me.