tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post1546109661460447437..comments2024-03-13T11:12:39.070-04:00Comments on deagol's AAPL model: Fiscal 4Q 2019 Final EstimatesDaniel Tellohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-54375252075219330912019-10-22T09:21:59.344-04:002019-10-22T09:21:59.344-04:00Fair points. Yeah I agree for W/H/A to hit mid te...Fair points. Yeah I agree for W/H/A to hit mid teens QoQ growth either Airpod 2 or Watch will have to grow substantially more than the 40% and 50% assumptions you made, which seem reasonable.<br /><br />I do agree with your point about QoQ variations; at the same time, there are YoY variations as well, depending on the launch schedule, etc. Over time though, QoQ variations tend to stay on a pattern, as Apple doesn't change its offering schedules that dramatically different each year - so there is a method to the madness (I hope!)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-70912300357021465512019-10-21T17:23:46.064-04:002019-10-21T17:23:46.064-04:00Correction: I had to double check on that last poi...Correction: I had to double check on that last point and seems I misread something somewhere on the back to school promotion. They’ve been offering Beats headphones since 2015, before that it was store gift cards, so my bad in that regard. The only changes this year is now you can get a Beats Studio3 ($350 value which is $50 more than the Solo3, last year’s top offer) with a Mac, and the addition of the iPad Air as a qualifying purchase. Perhaps more significant is the fact they simultaneously refreshed several Mac models so students likely felt this year was way better value than last.<br /><br />Anyway, all of this may amount to a couple hundred million here or there, and I’m ok with that range of error.Daniel Tellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-40800672020236864622019-10-21T15:26:25.540-04:002019-10-21T15:26:25.540-04:00Hi anon, thanks!
Very good points on W/H/A revenu...Hi anon, thanks!<br /><br />Very good points on W/H/A revenue last quarter. I can only give a sort of hand-wavy answer here, hope you understand there’s not too much data to support a more convincing argument. I hardly ever look at sequential growth patterns, since I believe product launch timing and other effects introduce too much variability. Given the many untractable components in this category it may well be that I missed (or misplaced) something along the way.<br /><br />I’ll share a few details. For Watch, I have it growing near 50% but that still left it flat sequentially, could by my June Watch estimate is a bit high. As for the rest, I doubt anything other than AirPods grew too much. I have AirPods growing over 40% and 10% the rest. As I said I didn’t look at where those land sequentially, but checking now it’s 9% for AirPods and 4% the rest. I feel there’s an outlier component of these in the June quarter, but without much validation from Apple I have no way of figuring it out precisely.<br /><br />Finally I’ll mention that this year’s back to school promotion involved Beats while last year I think it was gift cards or store credit, if I remember correctly. It’s likely I charge a few hundred million to the category on this, however, I now realize this is wrong as the accounting of the promo would be to charge the purchased Mac or iPad proportionally. In short, you may want to shift some from Mac and iPad where I’m probably a bit high into W/H/A where it seems I’m low. Make sense?<br /><br />Cheers, and thanks again for the input.Daniel Tellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-68043651022358383122019-10-20T23:37:46.633-04:002019-10-20T23:37:46.633-04:00First of all, great work as always!
I see you mod...First of all, great work as always!<br /><br />I see you model W/H/A up 34% yoy - a big increase no doubt. However, Q3 YoY was up 48% for that segment. Furthermore, if you look at the QoQ growth (from Q3 to Q4) the last couple of years, it's all in the mid teens. You currently have it up 2.5% QoQ - may I ask why?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-46428499666846646502019-10-20T07:24:31.163-04:002019-10-20T07:24:31.163-04:00Thanks! - RogerThanks! - Rogerindigoprinthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00311721436750383941noreply@blogger.com