tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post5730490066274817409..comments2024-03-13T11:12:39.070-04:00Comments on deagol's AAPL model: iPad to exceed Mac revenue in 2012Daniel Tellohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-30504364387047361162010-10-02T12:57:48.555-04:302010-10-02T12:57:48.555-04:30when can we expect the next quarter estimates. I c...when can we expect the next quarter estimates. I check every day and am so anxious to see what you have for us.<br /><br />JackJavaJackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03263943961526019485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-48138551022123100912010-09-21T01:08:42.086-04:302010-09-21T01:08:42.086-04:30Domingo, I do make an estimate of portable devices...Domingo, I do make an estimate of portable devices in use (installed base) including all iPods, iPhones, and iPads (currently near 200 million) in order to model the iTunes line by computing the ratio of iTunes revenue per device.<br /><br />This ratio had been decreasing as the number of devices grew, from a peak of about $90 per device per year in mid 2004, ramping down (exponentially) to about $50 the next year, $37 in 2006, $30 in 2007 and 2008, then dipped to $28 for 2009, and during 2010 has been recovering very slightly, and now stands at almost $29/device/year.<br /><br />I'm modeling a very slow recovery up to about $34 by 2020. So iTunes growth is driven mostly through the number of devices in use (growing to over 900 million by 2020 haha ...ok don't laugh!).<br /><br />I do agree that apps should drive this ratio higher, the problem is that the music stuff hasn't kept up with device growth (as noted by others through the song download metrics), so the apps are merely compensating (for now) and the ratio is barely moving up.Daniel Tellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-76383856729009499612010-09-21T00:08:45.626-04:302010-09-21T00:08:45.626-04:30Thanks Daniel. This works much better for me.Thanks Daniel. This works much better for me.Lee Penickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10220839564066969299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-21871258965733742922010-09-20T16:08:07.336-04:302010-09-20T16:08:07.336-04:30Hi Daniel,
I have the intuition that the growth of...Hi Daniel,<br />I have the intuition that the growth of the iTunes/App Store sales is going to be really big, driven mainly by the iPad success. And also I think that once that people get used to buy apps (and e-books, etc.) they do it more and more.. that is the income with the App Store is more than linear with the number of iOS devices.<br /><br />Have you observed some variation in the ratio of iTunes income / iOS devices?<br /><br />Congrats for your really interesting blog!<br /><br /> Domingo.Domingo Gallardo Lópezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13190873050460656826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-64399926164449234992010-09-15T10:24:53.618-04:302010-09-15T10:24:53.618-04:30Hi, Daniel,
Does your chart take into account the ...Hi, Daniel,<br />Does your chart take into account the effect of a recovery? It would be interesting to see how different economic scenarios might affect these numbers. Personally, I see the potential for a much stronger recovery than most seem to expect, but that could change if we get a paralyzed Congress. I'm not trying to enter the world of politics here. I just think it would be interesting to get your "take" on the effects of macro-economic forces on Apple's growth prospects.Sacto Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11078205006059201542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-52608626115796401012010-09-15T05:54:51.981-04:302010-09-15T05:54:51.981-04:30Alright, added a linear scale version.Alright, added a linear scale version.Daniel Tellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-56099439425359411182010-09-14T22:59:48.326-04:302010-09-14T22:59:48.326-04:30One more vote for a linear representation.
intere...One more vote for a linear representation.<br /><br />interesting work, thanks for doing this.Lee Penickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10220839564066969299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-16294770154760506102010-09-14T10:16:24.799-04:302010-09-14T10:16:24.799-04:30Can you do a linear scale version of the chart, pl...Can you do a linear scale version of the chart, please?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-77858625760517178012010-09-13T17:08:15.116-04:302010-09-13T17:08:15.116-04:30really good!
I think also iTunes will top Mac as ...really good! <br />I think also iTunes will top Mac as well!Mehrdad Piroozramhttp://www.twitter.com/piroozramnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-20845384832031910042010-09-13T15:05:14.349-04:302010-09-13T15:05:14.349-04:30As I always say, take the stuff beyond 2012 with a...As I always say, take the stuff beyond 2012 with a healthy dose of skepticism. The haziness is intended to suggest such uncertainty.<br /><br />I think the iPod functionality is much more clearly covered on the iPhone than the Mac functionality may eventually be covered on iPad. Thus, even though there may be a similar dynamic there, I would never have the Mac line as the iPod line. I'm even thinking the iPod touch has a chance of raising the trajectory a little bit (but never like the Mac).<br /><br />Yes, my SW line may be a bit aggressive. I'm expecting an iLife update early next year and a major update to the Mac OS late next year. Also, keep in mind it's not only SW, but also Services (Applecare and MobileMe and who knows what other cloudy stuff).Daniel Tellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-34169361363390002792010-09-13T13:55:39.680-04:302010-09-13T13:55:39.680-04:30I have not tried to see beyond 2013, but this is r...I have not tried to see beyond 2013, but this is really interesting. I respect your iTunes line. My assumption would be that the Mac would follow the iPod trajectory once the iPad overtakes it. By that time frame the iPad should be truly substituting a laptop. I would also index SW to the Mac line and the Peripherals to the iPhone/iPad.asymcohttp://www.asymco.comnoreply@blogger.com