tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post7485823670393788503..comments2024-03-13T11:12:39.070-04:00Comments on deagol's AAPL model: Fiscal 2Q 2015 Final EstimatesDaniel Tellohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-29943924908710737672015-04-25T18:19:44.649-04:302015-04-25T18:19:44.649-04:30Thanks David, Jack, and Anon, for the kind words. ...Thanks David, Jack, and Anon, for the kind words. Really appreciate it.<br /><br />Anon, although I mostly focus on the future I of course value accuracy and reliability in the estimates and price targets which requires looking back at that performance in the past. The chart included in this post achieves some of what you suggest in a simple and insightful manner.<br /><br />A few years ago I posted a <a href="http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2010/10/deagol-vs-market-vs-apple.html?m=1" rel="nofollow">much more detailed analysis</a> of the validity of my valuation methodology, and stats on estimates vs. actuals comparisons. Later I shared some specific examples of the challenges involved in predicting both Apple's financial results and their interpretation by the market in a <a href="http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2013/01/fiscal-1q-2013-final-estimates.html?showComment=1358476103445&m=1#c4395734398873868888" rel="nofollow">series of comments</a> responding to a similar question. Please check both of those out.<br /><br />For now, seeing as the market seems currently aligned with my estimates and valuation measures, I'll leave further in-depth analysis of past performance for a time when (not if) a new divergence emerges. But I hope those two instances help you get a sense of the level of uncertainty in estimating Apple and the unpredictability in targeting AAPL (particularly the timing aspect of it).<br /><br />Always keep in mind that most of what I do is far from hard science and instead involves much intuition, subjectivity and emotion, all distilled into a sort of "feeling" towards deriving useful results, as is the case for all social/behavioral science. Even the cold theoretical finance approach to it, with all its hard math is just probabilistic models, nothing deterministic about it and far from absolute truths.<br /><br />As always, I advise each and everyone to do their own research, permeated with as many diverse views as possible and come to their own conclusions while still remaining flexible and keeping an open mind about it all.<br /><br />Thanks again for the supportive comments.Daniel Tellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-25044081094378630602015-04-25T12:59:48.964-04:302015-04-25T12:59:48.964-04:30I agree wholeheartedly with David's comment an...I agree wholeheartedly with David's comment and I thank you for these excellent quarterly estimates.<br /><br />What I think would be interesting is if you went back and looked at your fair value and 1-Yr target estimates for previous quarters and compared those estimates with the actual stock price for those dates. You could then comment on what happened that impacted the differences and how these differences changed your thinking for future estimates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-37608088069513233172015-04-25T11:58:49.445-04:302015-04-25T11:58:49.445-04:30I love them, too.I love them, too.JavaJackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03263943961526019485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-17392980656184235882015-04-23T09:59:10.465-04:302015-04-23T09:59:10.465-04:30I think I love your forecasts/estimates more than ...I think I love your forecasts/estimates more than anyone. Just enough information and clarity. Not too dumbed down, not too complicated.David Bresslerhttp://davidbressler.comnoreply@blogger.com