tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post4388698807570638976..comments2024-03-13T11:12:39.070-04:00Comments on deagol's AAPL model: Sexy model curves on iPad pre-ordersDaniel Tellohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-7637489342620202782010-03-28T19:28:52.665-04:302010-03-28T19:28:52.665-04:30The analysis was insightfull knowing that Credir S...The analysis was insightfull knowing that Credir Suisse reported their estimate of 90 days to sell 1M Ipads. I would like to see some Q2 and Q3 earnings earnings estimates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-20180938792642486122010-03-16T22:17:06.825-04:302010-03-16T22:17:06.825-04:30I'm getting anxious to see some 2nd quarter nu...I'm getting anxious to see some 2nd quarter numbers. When will we start to see some data?JavaJackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03263943961526019485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-6204565709181562442010-03-16T18:56:37.452-04:302010-03-16T18:56:37.452-04:30At best this just shows the ultra early adopters t...At best this just shows the ultra early adopters that will buy this sight-unseen. At worst, this is pure speculation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-57614013640439475022010-03-16T13:50:02.548-04:302010-03-16T13:50:02.548-04:30One fascinating bit of news: According to Apple In...One fascinating bit of news: According to Apple Insider, the iPad keyboard dock, the iPad soft case and the iPad 10W USB power adapter are now in back-order mode. So those of us who ordered early are now officially the birds that got the worms….Sacto Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11078205006059201542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-50193711442782257892010-03-15T19:57:46.912-04:302010-03-15T19:57:46.912-04:30Are you going to take into count Amazon pre-orders...Are you going to take into count Amazon pre-orders? <br />http://www.amazon.com/Apple-iPad-Tablet-16GB-Wifi/dp/B002C7481G%3Ftag%3D2615-20Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-20902862657657484292010-03-15T13:37:43.399-04:302010-03-15T13:37:43.399-04:30nice analysis, this proved that Apple still one of...nice analysis, this proved that Apple still one of the most valuable brandAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-22135817240420742632010-03-15T13:27:52.161-04:302010-03-15T13:27:52.161-04:30how good is your data for regular orders on Apple....how good is your data for regular orders on Apple.com? I guess at one point it will be difficult to separate iPad pre-orders from regular orders, don't you think. Do you have historic data for regular purchases (including seasonality or at least day of week distribution)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-19597878244809205472010-03-15T13:02:27.447-04:302010-03-15T13:02:27.447-04:30You got a complimentary, well deserved mention thi...You got a complimentary, well deserved mention this morning. http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/03/15/apple-ipad-orders-drop-sharply/?source=yahoo_quoteJavaJackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03263943961526019485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-24338459310538087642010-03-15T10:41:00.984-04:302010-03-15T10:41:00.984-04:30I think you are being a little conservative in you...I think you are being a little conservative in your estimates. Given this response, I think we will see 1 million by end of first week, and an average of close to 1 million / month thereafter. I will throw my hat into the 7M by year's end ring. <br />---<br /><br />Last thought - nobody expected that early rate of sales to hold up. No one expected it to be that high to begin with.jmmxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-56695158352106908052010-03-15T10:34:46.047-04:302010-03-15T10:34:46.047-04:30Another set of orders not covered by your analysis...Another set of orders not covered by your analysis is the business orders. We have no way of knowing what these are, but reports they they are also being limited to 2 per person suggest that they are also very robust.jmmxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-17610975055130997442010-03-15T10:29:29.759-04:302010-03-15T10:29:29.759-04:30was expecting hot chicks, not in their bathing sui...was expecting hot chicks, not in their bathing suits though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-40728689244975536462010-03-15T09:54:33.173-04:302010-03-15T09:54:33.173-04:30Great analysis! It will be interesting to see wha...Great analysis! It will be interesting to see what happens this week and to add in estimated reservation units. I'd expect 75-80% of those reserved will actually be picked up on Day 1. But I'm fairly sure that reserved units not picked up on Day 1 will be bought by those in line who didn't reserve one.<br /><br />I did a similar analysis back on Friday with just a few order numbers and had my first results by around 10am. I then recalculated after 10 hours with more data points. I didn't really believe my results until I saw yours. Thanks a lot! Love the graphs.<br /><br />I'm going to try a few more things.<br /><br /><b>First day US sales:</b><br /><br />Apple has 222 stores in the US. They will each be open 12 hours on April 3rd. That's 2664 store hours on the first day of US iPad sales. Picture long lines of customers and lots of sales and checkout staff. If an Apple store can sell just 80 iPads an hour, thats another 200,000 or so iPads sold on April 3. <br /><br />If that seems like a high number, it's not really. It's probably low. The iPhone launch in June 2007 (Apple had fewer stores then but also sold iPhones from a small number of AT&T stores) sold 500,000 iPhones in a weekend from Friday at 6pm til 9pm Sunday. I'll have to somehow figure out how to parse sales of reserved units and unreserved units.<br /><br />At any rate, the iPad first weekend U.S. store sales should beat the iPhones for a lot of reasons but even if it just matches it, that's another half a million on that weekend alone.<br /><br /><b>Non-US sales:</b><br /><br />Apple said the iPad would go on sale in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland and the U.K. in late April. I'm going to apply my previous analyses to these markets based on their population and Apple presence/market share their. <br /><br /><b>Future rate slope increases:</b> <br /><br />These are pretty obvious I guess. Expect a slope increase when 3G iPad US sales start til the end of April. Then add in international starting late Spring and Summer. Then back-to-school buying in August/Sept. Then Christmas 2010. <br /><br />Bottom line is I think Wall St. projections for iPad sales for 2010 (4-5 million) are wrong and extremely low.<br /><br />Ronin<br />ronin48@mac.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-43747966309169330942010-03-15T09:31:46.388-04:302010-03-15T09:31:46.388-04:30You know, you could have easily found a suitable p...You know, you could have easily found a suitable photo and placed it in the background of the graphs that would have "accentuated" the sexy curves a bit. We're living in the 21st century! The graphical display of data pseudo-porn no longer have to be mutually exclusive.smirkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03405409065165942175noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-31169432025421373272010-03-15T09:09:42.010-04:302010-03-15T09:09:42.010-04:30Thanks Judy!Thanks Judy!Daniel Tellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356162909901960817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4057266811973629846.post-3881784802083400972010-03-15T08:39:01.029-04:302010-03-15T08:39:01.029-04:30Nice analysis.
A small comment:
Cumulative has on...Nice analysis.<br /><br />A small comment:<br />Cumulative has only one "m".Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03240158887429958414noreply@blogger.com