Saturday, October 26, 2013

Fiscal 4Q 2013 Final Estimates


As of Friday's close of $525.96 AAPL is trading at 10.0 times my forward EPS estimate (7.4x ex-cash). Thanks to the new phones' successful launch and pricing confirming Apple's winning strategy, I'm finally able to revise numbers upwards. Potential guidance for the current quarter (Q1 FY 2014) looks very promising compared to WS consensus.

Detailed estimates:


3mo ending Sep-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus     36,820     7.92
Deagol estimates       38,051     8.66 (902m shares)


3mo ending Dec-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     55,530    13.84
Apple guide lo (e)     57,000    14.25    37.0
Apple guide hi (e)     62,000    16.75    39.0
Deagol estimates       61,841    16.85    39.2 (882m shares)

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Ridiculous Apple Dramedy


Dramatis Personae

Apple (AP.)

AnalCyst (ANL.)

TechXpert (TEX.)

Markaotic Chorus (MRKT.)


-----


Act 1, Scene 1

Stage: The street, some random web property. Any one of so many indistinguishable articles.