Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Fiscal 2Q 2013 Final Estimates

At around $405 AAPL is now trading at 7.7x my forward EPS estimate (4.8x ex-cash). Apparently management will donate or literally burn all the cash, as the market refuses to value any of it. My (once again lowered) target still implies a doubling of the current price over the next 12-18 months.

Detailed estimates:


3mo ending Mar-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance(mid)    42,000     9.74 (implied 947m diluted shares)
Analysts consensus     42,590    10.07
Deagol estimates       44,112    11.04


3mo ending Jun-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Deagol estimates       41,175    10.17
Analysts consensus     39,340     9.08
Apple guide (est.)     39,000     8.95 (implied 38% GM)