Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Fiscal 2Q 2013 Final Estimates

At around $405 AAPL is now trading at 7.7x my forward EPS estimate (4.8x ex-cash). Apparently management will donate or literally burn all the cash, as the market refuses to value any of it. My (once again lowered) target still implies a doubling of the current price over the next 12-18 months.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Mar-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance(mid)    42,000     9.74 (implied 947m diluted shares)
Analysts consensus     42,590    10.07
Deagol estimates       44,112    11.04

3mo ending Jun-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Deagol estimates       41,175    10.17
Analysts consensus     39,340     9.08
Apple guide (est.)     39,000     8.95 (implied 38% GM)

12m ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Deagol estimates      210,117    56.10
Analysts consensus    203,630    49.02

Valuation (12mo ending on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash  Div   Tot
--------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ----  ---  ----
Trailing        (Mar-2013)    42.84   4%  428   152    8   588
Fair value      (Mar-2014)    52.39  22%  524   188   11   723
1yr target      (Mar-2015)    59.32  13%  593   232   11   836

F2Q13 Revenue breakdown ($M):
Mac        5,620 ( 4,250 × $1,322)
iPod       1,040 ( 6,500 × $160)
iPhone    24,203 (39,000 × $621)
iPad       7,967 (18,500 × $431)
iT/S/S     3,872
Accssr     1,410

Income statement ($M):
Revenue   44,112
COGS      26,625
GM        17,487
OpEx       3,827
OpInc     13,660
OI&E         380
Pre-tax   14,040
Tax        3,580
NetInc    10,460
Shrs.        947
EPS       $11.04

GM%        39.6%
OpInc%     31.0%
Tax%       25.5%
NetInc%    23.7%


Anonymous said...

Thumbs up! And fingers crossed....

artman1033 said...


Two responses, take your pick.

1) YOU nailed it! YOU'RE the MAN!


2) What happened? How could you be so far off?

Daniel Tello said...

artman, at this point I'll happily take 2: far off (underestimated) ;)

Anonymous said...

Deagol, Gregg Thurman here.
I like your estimates. They are a bit more conservative than my own (revenue $45.150 EPS $11.50), but close enough to make me happy if Apple prints yours vs mine.

Daniel Tello said...

Thanks Gregg I'll be rooting for yours

nrabinov said...

Hi Deagol,

Why did you post theses estimates so late? You usually post them about a week before...

Anyway, your estimates are much higher than mine (I'm expecting very close to Apple's guidance).


Anonymous said...

With Apple presumably issuing guidance that is close to what they expect to report, how are you estimating figures that greatly exceed theirs? What gives you confidence that what you are modeling will prove accurate?

Anonymous said...

Hi, Daniel,

Well looks like you were right on the revenue (or close enough) but the pros were right on the eps. The juxtaposition of those two is very, very interesting to me, and suggests that Apple shipped a boarload of iOS products! For the growth of the ecosystem, that's huge. And they reflected that focus on the ecosystem in their comments. I'm totally on board with them on that focus.

They've also indicated low numbers for next quarter, but again, I don't trust their revenue number. My guess is that revenue will beat yet again. I think margins will be low though. Once again, I think we'll see a massive increase yoy in devices sold, though. I really think that's the story that everyone's missing. It's relatively easy for Samsung to get its featurephone customers to buy its smartphones. Apple doesn't have old featurephone customers, and can only grownits customer base one new convert at a time.