Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Fiscal Q3 '09 actual results vs. estimates

100 bp GM surprise is nice. Happy to be a few cents below. Now guidance... really really happy about it.

Oh and I hit one number right on the nose! hehe that was cool.

 
. Est Act Err%
. ---- ---- -----

Income statement:
Revenue 8350 8337 + 0.2%
COGS 5403 5314 + 1.7%
GM 2948 3023 - 2.5%
OpEx 1349 1351 - 0.2%
OpInc 1599 1672 - 4.4%
OI&E 57 60 - 5.8%
Pre-tax 1655 1732 - 4.4%
Tax 508 503 + 1.0%
NetInc 1147 1229 - 6.7%
Shrs. 905 909 - 0.4%
EPS 1.27 1.35 - 6.3%

Ratios:
GM% 35.3% 36.3% - 2.6%
OpInc% 19.1% 20.1% - 4.5%
Tax% 30.7% 29.0% + 5.7%
NetInc% 13.7% 14.7% - 6.8%

Revenue breakdown:
Mac 3104 3329 - 6.8%
iPod 1587 1492 + 6.4%
Music 987 958 + 3.1%
iPhone 1689 1689 0.0%
Periph 413 341 +21.0%
Software 571 528 + 8.1%

Units:
Mac 2444 2603 - 6.1%
iPod 10800 10215 + 5.7%
iPhone 5000 5208 - 4.0%

ASP:
Mac 1270 1279 - 0.7%
iPod 147 146 + 0.6%
iPhone 550 557 - 1.2%

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Final Estimates for Fiscal Q3 2009

Lots of things going on over the last 3 months. Most significant adjustments are:
- About 1.5M to 1.8M iPhone units shifted forward from Q4 to Q3, due to the launch one week earlier than I was assuming. This only affects non-GAAP estimates.
- MacBook refresh validates my optimistic unit expectations, but ASPs take a hit.
- Higher SW revenue (and about 100 bp higher GM) for next Q1 due to Snow Leopard launch in September.
- Not making any assumptions about a tablet product... yet.
- AAPL is finally trading at or above 25x trailing EPS. I'm still hoping for this same multiple but on a forward-looking basis by the end of this year as the level below which I would consider AAPL a strong buy (DYOD, YMMV, etc.)

I apologize for not being able to do a preliminary update last month, mostly due to lack of user-volunteered data, but also because so much was going on that it seemed useless trying to pin down all the changing variables in the middle of June. I was a bit surprised at receiving just a couple of orders during May (thanks go to SagHarbor and Marc), and I was able to "steal" the quarter-closing order from fellow modeler Caligula (thanks Steve!), all of these for the US Online Store. I didn't get any data for the EU store, so I decided to estimate a similar trend as the US store (flat) instead of killing that whole effort. Hopefully there will be more volunteers in the future.

Good luck next week!
-d


3mo ending Jun-2009:
FY09Q3 Revenue($B) EPS($)
------ ----------- ------
Apple guidance 7.80 0.98
Analysts cons. 8.16 1.16
My estimate 8.35 1.27
My non-GAAP e. 9.62 1.80

Product Units(M)
------- --------
Mac 2.44
iPhone 5.00
iPod 10.80

3mo ending Sep-2009:
FY09Q4 Revenue($B) EPS($)
------ ----------- ------
Analysts cons. 9.02 1.29
My estimate 9.11 1.40
My non-GAAP e. 10.63 2.04
Apple gd (est) 8.60 1.05

12mo ending Sep-2010:
FY10 Revenue($B) EPS($)
---- ----------- ------
Analysts cons. 41.53 6.40
My estimate 44.74 7.80
My non-GAAP e. 47.51 8.95

Stock valuation:
Window 12mo starting EPS(e) PPS(25x)
------ ------------- ------ --------
Trailing Oct-08 5.79 145
Fair value Oct-09 7.80 195
1-year target Jul-10 9.43 236
Analysts mean target 159


Revenue breakdown:

Mac 3104 ( 2.44M x $1270)
iPhone 1689 ( 5.00M x $ 550)
iPod 1587 (10.80M x $ 147)
Music 987
Software 571
Periph 413
-------- ----
Total 8350


Income statement:

Revenue 8350
COGS 5403
GM 2948
OpEx 1349
OpInc 1599
OI&E 57
Pre-tax 1655
Tax 508
NetInc 1147
Shrs. 905
EPS 1.27


Ratios:

GM% 35.3%
OpInc% 19.1%
Tax% 30.7%
NetInc% 13.7%


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