Wednesday, October 20, 2010
I'll have to fine tune the iPhone and iPad projections. Everything else came in a bit soft, with iPod and iTunes the weakest. On the income statement, I started with a relatively small $219m (1.1%) revenue shortfall, but made it worse at every step (most impact was from guessing GM a bit high) and it widened to $403m (7.4%) shortfall in pretax income. Fortunately this was almost all offset by a much lower tax rate than estimated, resulting in actual EPS only 9 cents short of estimated, or within 2%. Guidance for the current quarter was impressive.
Here's all the details. I've included the combined iPad+iPhone figures to highlight how those two big errors balanced out.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Back in April I posted a couple of charts showing how my "fair value" and "target" forecasts compared to AAPL's price history over the last few years. Several readers have asked for an update, and I said I'd do one when AAPL made a credible move to catch up with its fundamentals, which is the basis for my FV and target forecasts. Seeing as AAPL has run about 80 points in 7 weeks, I was also curious to visualize how far towards a fair valuation has this recent attempt taken it.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Apple now trading at 12.7 times my FY2011 EPS (10.5x after excluding cash)
3mo ending Sep-2010 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guidance 18,000 3.44 Analysts consensus 18,610 3.99 Deagol estimates 20,562 4.73