Saturday, October 2, 2010

Fiscal 4Q 2010 Final Estimates

Apple now trading at 12.7 times my FY2011 EPS (10.5x after excluding cash)
3mo ending Sep-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance         18,000     3.44
Analysts consensus     18,610     3.99
Deagol estimates       20,562     4.73

3mo ending Dec-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guide (est.)     22.300     4.50
Analysts consensus     21,840     4.95
Deagol estimates       24,800     6.00


12m ending Sep-2011   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus     79,610    17.71
Deagol estimates       92,755    22.22


Valuation (12mo beginning on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  15x  20x  25x
-----------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ---  ---
Trailing           (Oct-2009)    15.24  68%  229  305  381
Fair value         (Oct-2010)    22.22  46%  333  444  556
1yr target         (Oct-2011)    29.31  32%  440  586  733


Revenue breakdown:
Mac        4,930 ( 3,925 @ $1,256)
iPad       3,897 ( 5,833 @ $  668)
iPhone     7,643 (12,513 @ $  611)
iPod       1,599 ( 9,621 @ $  166)
iTunes     1,331
Software     671
Periph       492

Income statement:
Revenue   20,562
COGS      12,731
GM         7,832
OpEx       2,037
OpInc      5,795
OI&E          69
Pre-tax    5,864
Tax        1,466
NetInc     4,398
Shrs.        930
EPS         4.73

Ratios:
GM%        38.1%
OpInc%     28.2%
Tax%       25.0%
NetInc%    21.4%


Check out these fellow bloggers' estimates:
Robert Leitao: AAPL 4th Fiscal Quarter Estimates (Oct4)
Jeff Fosberg: AFB's user Mercel (Oct1)
Alexis Cabot: AFB's user awcabot (Oct1)
Dennis Hildebrand: Q4 10 numbers - Over the top (Sep30)
Turley Muller: N/A

Keep an eye on Apple 2.0 for PED's pros vs. bloggers smack-down:

9 comments:

Horace Dediu said...

Great stuff. I will be updating my July numbers but at first glance it seems we are in violent agreement on everything except my iPhone number is a bit higher and my iPad number is a bit lower.

Andy M. Zaky said...

Very nice. I, like Horace, will be updating my numbers within the next week or so as well.

Diego said...

Thanks again for this service, Deag. That $733 25x target can't happen, right? There will be a point at which AAPL has saturated the market with iPads and iPhones, met demand with those products and when the stock's value and its PE subsequently levels out, no?

Horace Dediu said...

Anything can happen to a stock price. It can go to $40 or it can go to $1000. Plan accordingly.

Horace Dediu said...

I've updated my estimates here: http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/04/updated-estimates-for-apples-fourth-quarter-earnings/

javajack said...

Thanks for this. I know I've been whining for some numbers and now I have them. Wow! These numbers are amazing!

javajack said...

when do they report the next quarter?

deagol said...

The "next" quarter as in the current one ending in Dec? I would guess around Jan 18. Apple should post the date soon after the quarter ends (xmas day).

Roy in San Jose said...

The market has been spooked about Apple being #2 in market cap, never mind whether or not that is deserved.

For several months, analysts have consistently mentioned $300+ as a target price for the stock, but the price has languished in the $250 area.

Now, for the first time, you start hearing numbers in the $400s, and buyers are beginning to believe we will see $300s. I expect the current momentum will carry the stock to the mid $300s.

What AAPL needs is for one of the big Wall Street names to come out with a price target of $750.

Apple has the potential to be the first publicly traded company that could reach a trillion dollar market cap.