Monday, September 13, 2010
iPad to exceed Mac revenue in 2012
And no, it's not because I think it'll eat into Mac's growth (average about 25% growth in units, 20% in revenue for the next couple of years). But by Sep 2012 (ttm) iPad would grab the #2 spot as a revenue driver within Apple, behind the iPhone. If we annualize the current quarter's estimate it already exceeds annual iPod revenue, which was the #3 driver up to now (this even after taking into account the December seasonality which benefits the iPod).
Back in early April, before few had any clue how big the iPad would be, I had this very ambitious forecast for it, along with all other Apple product lines. I was way off in underestimating its contribution (as well as iPhone's). Here's an update to that chart:
Click to enlarge. Vertical scale is logarithmic. The explicit values shown are for FY2011. Shaded right side are estimates, fading into the hazy, far-off future.
Final Q4 estimates in just a few weeks. Stay tuned!
Update: By readers request, here's a version with linear scale. I was reluctant to publish this due to the ease with which the adventurous assumptions there in the hazy side (I tried making it even hazier) could be misinterpreted as a serious forecast. Please, just look at it as a very rough illustrative example of how the product mix might look like over the next decade if things kept going in the same general direction as they are now (they won't).
The revenue for the product segments are stacked here because it makes it easier to distinguish between them. I've also included a line for the total revenue growth, so you can see the projection isn't based on some outlandish growth assumption. In fact, it may turn out to be quite conservative.
So, please understand that things will most likely be very different, obviously since there surely will be new and completely different products. With this disclaimer, I guess it's ok to share it (and if I'm right I still get to brag about it). Click to enlarge: