Friday, April 9, 2010

Another revenue segments visualization

Before I post my Q2 predictions next week, I thought I'd entertain those who are a bit anxious with yet another visualization of Apple's various revenue sources (click to enlarge):



First thing you should notice is the log scale. Second, you don't get a legend for the colored lines. Ha! [Update: game over, see the 10 year projection above] It occurred to me as a fun and educational research activity to leave it like that and let you work out which color is which product segment. It shouldn't be hard if you remember your Apple products history. And as an incentive, I'll send you the continuation of the graph with my estimates for the next 10 years (yea I know 10 years is crazy but whatever) if you email me the correct color/product matching. Don't spoil it for others in the comments, please!

Enjoy!
-d

Update:
Well, 15 readers have played along and correctly cracked the color key (with just a little help for a few), and are enjoying the prize. The toughest part seems to be how to name those colors! Blame it on the mischievous guys and gals from the MacBU at Microsoft for picking those default colors for charts in Excel for Mac.
These were the names readers used for just two of them:
teal, turquoise, blue-green, light blue, bright blue, mid-tone blue (teal)
gray, blueish gray, light blue, light purple, purple, lightest blue (lavender?)
Yikes! I wonder what they called them at the MacBU. Probably something impossible like 'Blue Chill' and 'Blue Haze'.
Good job everyone. And if anyone's stuck... get a clue already. :P
Earnings estimates tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday).

3 comments:

Roy said...

Will take a little time to sort these out... but there are two missing from this chart - iPad and iAd, both of which should show revenues for 2010, and the iPad of course, should already be in Q2.

deagol said...

Roy, there's no iPad revenue until fiscal Q3 2010 ending in June. And I'm not modeling iAd for now (maybe I'll try that for Q4 still a couple of quarters away).

Al said...

Deagol,

Hey, I wanted to ask you your opinion about something. Now that Apple has announced Facetime on the i-Phone 4 and announced that it will only work over a wifi connection, I wanted to ask if you think you will need to raise your i-Pod Touch sales estimates.

I personally think the i-Pod Touch sales are going to explode and that the i-Pod Classic will be discontinued. I feel this due to the belief that people who cannot afford the i-Phone due to the monthly contract with AT&T (specifically high school age kids), will want the new i-Pod Touch (and will upgrade) so that they can communicate visually with their friends via wifi. It will be like similar to the effect when texting was unleashed to the world and became a popular phenomena. I feel this will be the case for teenagers.

Additionally, I also believe that this is going to deal a massive blow to companies like Skype who as far as I'm aware were hoping to IPO sometime in the near future. This will be a massive blow because there is soon going to be such a huge installed base of Facetime users, that this will most definitely affect the growth of the Skype model going forward.

I believe the cannibalization of the i-Pod will stop as soon as Facetime is released on the i-Pod Touch.. What do you think? Please reply to me at al.velasco@me.com

-Al