Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Fiscal 2Q 2010 Final Estimates

3mo ending Mar-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
------------------- ------- ------
Apple guidance 11,200 2.12
Analysts consensus 11,960 2.44
Deagol estimates 12,594 2.77


3mo ending Jun-2010 Rev($M) EPS($)
------------------- ------- ------
Apple guidance (e) 13.200 2.40
Analysts consensus 12,913 2.63
Deagol estimates 14,675 3.21


12mo ending Sep-2010 Rev($M) EPS($)
-------------------- ------- ------
Analysts consensus 55,091 12.01
Deagol estimates 59,721 13.66


Valuation (12mo beginning on) EPS(e) PPS(25x)
----------------------------- ------ --------
Trailing (Apr-2009) 11.22 281
Fair value (Apr-2010) 15.72 393
1yr target (Apr-2011) 19.82 495

PED:
How many iPhones did Apple sell?
How many Macs did Apple sell?
How many iPods did Apple sell?
How big was Apple's second quarter?

Revenue breakdown:
Mac 3,893 ( 2.95M @ $1,320)
iPhone 4,764 ( 7.50M @ $ 635)
iPod 1,681 (10.40M @ $ 162)
Music 1,238
Software 608
Periph 412
-------- ------
Total 12,594


Income statement:
Revenue 12,594
COGS 7,367
GM 5,227
OpEx 1,631
OpInc 3,595
OI&E 35
Pre-tax 3,631
Tax 1,089
NetInc 2,541
Shrs. 918
EPS 2.77


Ratios:
GM% 41.5%
OpInc% 28.5%
Tax% 30.0%
NetInc% 20.2%

9 comments:

asymco said...

Very good.

My estimates are very close.
asymco revs and EPS 12,357 2.60

asymco Revenue breakdown:
Mac 3,918 ( 2.01M @ $1,300)
iPhone 4,500 ( 7.50M @ $ 600)
iPod 1,652 (11.00M @ $ 150)
Music 1,206
Software 689
Periph 393
-------- ------
Total 12,357

asymco said...

asymco Income statement:
Revenue 12,357
COGS 7,458
GM 4,899
OpEx 1,533
OpInc 3,366
OI&E 50
Pre-tax 3,416
Tax 1,025
NetInc 2,391
Shrs. 920
EPS 2.60

FrugalGeek said...

My simple model suggested a EPS of 2.83. It only has one variable: iphone sales number. Here I used your number 7.5M. Let us see how it goes.

deagol said...

asym, I'm sure you meant 3.01M Mac units there. Thanks for sharing.

Frugal, "it only has one variable," but what is the formula!? :P (I bet it's not EPS = k*iPhones)

FrugalGeek said...

Frugal, "it only has one variable," but what is the formula!? :P (I bet it's not EPS = k*iPhones)

Actually you are right :-).
Since I am not a financial analyst and have no time to dig into apple's financial report, I need a simple formula. Basically I assume apple's other segment's growth is 0, the only growth is from iphone. I have estimated how much apple can earn from 1M iphone sales, which is K in your formula, then delta EPS=K* delta iphone. I think iphone's growth will level up from Q1 2011, so the EPS growth will be much slower and the 25X EPS price tag will be too high.

asymco said...

Yes, sorry, I meant to write 3.01 million Macs.

By the way, one new and interesting data point we have to chew on for next Q is the iPad ASP.

Note that not only is the mix of products (6 SKUs) more complicated than the iPhone but also that the accessory business will add quite a bit.

Today we hear that international sales are postponed. No surprise if you spent any time in the stores lately. Sold out where I am and queues forming when it's on sale. Many buyers appear to be non-americans. Read more on my blog.

Roy said...

Excellent, thank you! I agree, there's upside from iPad peripherals. There's also upside from software licenses.

There are some apps that are licensed as one purchase that will work on any device (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad), but most apps are licensed separately for the iPhone and the iPad (e.g., Scrabble). These should represent some upside to revenues as well.

I'm sure everybody here has seen the "10 battles with Google" column:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/04/14/10-apple-vs-google-battles-to-watch-for/

I have a feeling that Microsoft and Yahoo will, even if reluctantly, do things to help Apple, if it means slowing down Google. I like Apple's chances, both this year and beyond.

Anonymous said...

The most dramatic numbers of Deagol's forecast are the guidance numbers of the Apr-Jun Quarter. Apple could guide as high as 2.8 and still be conservative.

Tetrachloride

Anonymous said...

Hi Deagol,

What are your thoughts about the success of Apples numbers in today's upcoming earnings being overshawdowed by the Goldman Sachs scandal?

Do you think that even though Apple will post great returns (which it does every quarter now) that the negativity of the Goldman fraud annoucements will dramatically affect mood about apple?

THanks