Friday, July 10, 2015

Fiscal 3Q 2015 Final Estimates


As of today's market close of $123.28, AAPL now trades at a 11.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (8.7x excluding next-12m cash and div).

Apple better start guiding a bit more realistically or analysts will start adding 10% to top of range from the outset no matter what. Beating by 5% revenue is ok but going back to Peter Oppenheimer's 15% (and 30% EPS) average sand-bagging is dangerous. (Game of guidance chicken as Mav likes to say. Hey Mav!)


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    48,970          1.78
Apple guide low       46,000   38.5   1.57*
Apple guide high      48,000   39.5   1.74*
Deagol estimates      51,249   40.3   1.95 (5.78b shares)


3mo ending Sep-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    50,990           1.86
Apple guide low (e)   49,000   38.5    1.70*
Apple guide high(e)   52,000   39.5    1.92*
Deagol estimates      52,801   40.3    1.97 (5.74b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   245,420   9.74
Deagol estimates     266,246  11.02