Friday, July 10, 2015

Fiscal 3Q 2015 Final Estimates


As of today's market close of $123.28, AAPL now trades at a 11.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (8.7x excluding next-12m cash and div).

Apple better start guiding a bit more realistically or analysts will start adding 10% to top of range from the outset no matter what. Beating by 5% revenue is ok but going back to Peter Oppenheimer's 15% (and 30% EPS) average sand-bagging is dangerous. (Game of guidance chicken as Mav likes to say. Hey Mav!)


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    48,970          1.78
Apple guide low       46,000   38.5   1.57*
Apple guide high      48,000   39.5   1.74*
Deagol estimates      51,249   40.3   1.95 (5.78b shares)


3mo ending Sep-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    50,990           1.86
Apple guide low (e)   49,000   38.5    1.70*
Apple guide high(e)   52,000   39.5    1.92*
Deagol estimates      52,801   40.3    1.97 (5.74b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   245,420   9.74
Deagol estimates     266,246  11.02

Valuation  (fwd-12mo from)  EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash* Div  Tot
--------------------------  ------  ---  ---  ----  ---  ---
Trailing        (Jun-2014)    8.76  41%   88    26    2  116
Fair value      (Jun-2015)   10.50  20%  105    30    2  137
1yr target      (Jun-2016)   12.35  18%  124    37    2  163

* Cash/share balance net of long-term debt



(click to enlarge)




F3Q15 Revenue breakdown (millions, except ASP):
iPhone    31,925 (51.0 × $626)
iPad       4,280 (10.0 × $428)
Mac        6,136 (4.95 × $1,240)
Services   5,006
Other      3,902 ( 4.0 × $550 = 2,200 Watch)

Income statement (millions, except EPS):
Revenue   51,249
COGS      30,577
GM        20,672  40.3%
OpEx       5,733
OpInc     14,939  29.1%
OI&E         357
Pre-tax   15,296
Tax        4,023  26.3%
NetInc    11,273  22.0%
Shrs.      5,779
EPS       $ 1.95

4 comments:

Roger said...

Thank you.

David S. Matrecano said...

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Daniel, thanks again for your continuing analysis. With respect to your 1-year price target of $163, does your sales forecast include only existing products, or perhaps estimated revenue from unannounced products such as the purported iPad Pro, enhanced Apple TV + media subscriptions and/or an untethered Apple Watch?

Daniel Tello said...

Yes to the extent I expect the current product lines will be updated, refreshed, and the growth I've projected must be driven by new innovation. But I don't model untis for those specific new products, or subs revs (for now).