3mo ending Sep-2010 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guidance 18,000 3.44 Analysts consensus 18,610 3.99 Deagol estimates 20,562 4.73 3mo ending Dec-2010 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guide (est.) 22.300 4.50 Analysts consensus 21,840 4.95 Deagol estimates 24,800 6.00 12m ending Sep-2011 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 79,610 17.71 Deagol estimates 92,755 22.22 Valuation (12mo beginning on) EPS($) Y/Y 15x 20x 25x ----------------------------- ------ --- --- --- --- Trailing (Oct-2009) 15.24 68% 229 305 381 Fair value (Oct-2010) 22.22 46% 333 444 556 1yr target (Oct-2011) 29.31 32% 440 586 733 Revenue breakdown: Mac 4,930 ( 3,925 @ $1,256) iPad 3,897 ( 5,833 @ $ 668) iPhone 7,643 (12,513 @ $ 611) iPod 1,599 ( 9,621 @ $ 166) iTunes 1,331 Software 671 Periph 492 Income statement: Revenue 20,562 COGS 12,731 GM 7,832 OpEx 2,037 OpInc 5,795 OI&E 69 Pre-tax 5,864 Tax 1,466 NetInc 4,398 Shrs. 930 EPS 4.73 Ratios: GM% 38.1% OpInc% 28.2% Tax% 25.0% NetInc% 21.4%
Check out these fellow bloggers' estimates:
Andy Zaky: Apple: Q4 2010 Earnings Preview (Oct17)
Robert Leitao: AAPL 4th Fiscal Quarter Estimates (Oct4)
Horace Dediu: Updated estimates for Apple’s fourth quarter earnings (Oct4)
Jeff Fosberg: AFB's user Mercel (Oct1)
Alexis Cabot: AFB's user awcabot (Oct1)
Dennis Hildebrand: Q4 10 numbers - Over the top (Sep30)
Turley Muller: N/A
Keep an eye on Apple 2.0 for PED's pros vs. bloggers smack-down:
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9 comments:
Great stuff. I will be updating my July numbers but at first glance it seems we are in violent agreement on everything except my iPhone number is a bit higher and my iPad number is a bit lower.
Very nice. I, like Horace, will be updating my numbers within the next week or so as well.
Thanks again for this service, Deag. That $733 25x target can't happen, right? There will be a point at which AAPL has saturated the market with iPads and iPhones, met demand with those products and when the stock's value and its PE subsequently levels out, no?
Anything can happen to a stock price. It can go to $40 or it can go to $1000. Plan accordingly.
I've updated my estimates here: http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/04/updated-estimates-for-apples-fourth-quarter-earnings/
Thanks for this. I know I've been whining for some numbers and now I have them. Wow! These numbers are amazing!
when do they report the next quarter?
The "next" quarter as in the current one ending in Dec? I would guess around Jan 18. Apple should post the date soon after the quarter ends (xmas day).
The market has been spooked about Apple being #2 in market cap, never mind whether or not that is deserved.
For several months, analysts have consistently mentioned $300+ as a target price for the stock, but the price has languished in the $250 area.
Now, for the first time, you start hearing numbers in the $400s, and buyers are beginning to believe we will see $300s. I expect the current momentum will carry the stock to the mid $300s.
What AAPL needs is for one of the big Wall Street names to come out with a price target of $750.
Apple has the potential to be the first publicly traded company that could reach a trillion dollar market cap.
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