Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Final Estimates for Fiscal Q3 2009

Lots of things going on over the last 3 months. Most significant adjustments are:
- About 1.5M to 1.8M iPhone units shifted forward from Q4 to Q3, due to the launch one week earlier than I was assuming. This only affects non-GAAP estimates.
- MacBook refresh validates my optimistic unit expectations, but ASPs take a hit.
- Higher SW revenue (and about 100 bp higher GM) for next Q1 due to Snow Leopard launch in September.
- Not making any assumptions about a tablet product... yet.
- AAPL is finally trading at or above 25x trailing EPS. I'm still hoping for this same multiple but on a forward-looking basis by the end of this year as the level below which I would consider AAPL a strong buy (DYOD, YMMV, etc.)

I apologize for not being able to do a preliminary update last month, mostly due to lack of user-volunteered data, but also because so much was going on that it seemed useless trying to pin down all the changing variables in the middle of June. I was a bit surprised at receiving just a couple of orders during May (thanks go to SagHarbor and Marc), and I was able to "steal" the quarter-closing order from fellow modeler Caligula (thanks Steve!), all of these for the US Online Store. I didn't get any data for the EU store, so I decided to estimate a similar trend as the US store (flat) instead of killing that whole effort. Hopefully there will be more volunteers in the future.

Good luck next week!

3mo ending Jun-2009:
FY09Q3 Revenue($B) EPS($)
------ ----------- ------
Apple guidance 7.80 0.98
Analysts cons. 8.16 1.16
My estimate 8.35 1.27
My non-GAAP e. 9.62 1.80

Product Units(M)
------- --------
Mac 2.44
iPhone 5.00
iPod 10.80

3mo ending Sep-2009:
FY09Q4 Revenue($B) EPS($)
------ ----------- ------
Analysts cons. 9.02 1.29
My estimate 9.11 1.40
My non-GAAP e. 10.63 2.04
Apple gd (est) 8.60 1.05

12mo ending Sep-2010:
FY10 Revenue($B) EPS($)
---- ----------- ------
Analysts cons. 41.53 6.40
My estimate 44.74 7.80
My non-GAAP e. 47.51 8.95

Stock valuation:
Window 12mo starting EPS(e) PPS(25x)
------ ------------- ------ --------
Trailing Oct-08 5.79 145
Fair value Oct-09 7.80 195
1-year target Jul-10 9.43 236
Analysts mean target 159

Revenue breakdown:

Mac 3104 ( 2.44M x $1270)
iPhone 1689 ( 5.00M x $ 550)
iPod 1587 (10.80M x $ 147)
Music 987
Software 571
Periph 413
-------- ----
Total 8350

Income statement:

Revenue 8350
COGS 5403
GM 2948
OpEx 1349
OpInc 1599
OI&E 57
Pre-tax 1655
Tax 508
NetInc 1147
Shrs. 905
EPS 1.27


GM% 35.3%
OpInc% 19.1%
Tax% 30.7%
NetInc% 13.7%

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Anonymous said...

Excellent work as always. I think however you're a bit high on the iPod ASP. I realize that the touch is boosting the number, but it was only 115 last Q and 120 the Q before that. I don't think it's been above 130 in years.

Anonymous said...

For what it's worth, I agree with most of your guesses, and came to EPS of 1.28 using my model. The iPhone recognized revenue is going to balloon to $1.8B for Q2 as the revenue pipeline is now finally full. Looking for $2.5B in iPhone recognition next quarter.

deagol said...

To anon #1, you might want to check the data (apple.com/investor)


To anon #2, I'm looking at $2B ($2.3B for the Dec quarter). Are you including iPhone accessories and carrier payments in your 2.5B?