Final Estimates for Fiscal Q3 2009

Lots of things going on over the last 3 months. Most significant adjustments are:

- About 1.5M to 1.8M iPhone units shifted forward from Q4 to Q3, due to the launch one week earlier than I was assuming. This only affects non-GAAP estimates.
- MacBook refresh validates my optimistic unit expectations, but ASPs take a hit.
- Higher SW revenue (and about 100 bp higher GM) for next Q1 due to Snow Leopard launch in September.
- Not making any assumptions about a tablet product... yet.
- AAPL is finally trading at or above 25x trailing EPS. I'm still hoping for this same multiple but on a forward-looking basis by the end of this year as the level below which I would consider AAPL a strong buy (DYOD, YMMV, etc.)

I apologize for not being able to do a preliminary update last month, mostly due to lack of user-volunteered data, but also because so much was going on that it seemed useless trying to pin down all the changing variables in the middle of June. I was a bit surprised at receiving just a couple of orders during May (thanks go to SagHarbor and Marc), and I was able to "steal" the quarter-closing order from fellow modeler Caligula (thanks Steve!), all of these for the US Online Store. I didn't get any data for the EU store, so I decided to estimate a similar trend as the US store (flat) instead of killing that whole effort. Hopefully there will be more volunteers in the future.

Good luck next week!
-d


3mo ending Jun-2009:

FY09Q3    Revenue($B)  EPS($)
------    -----------  ------
Apple guidance   7.80    0.98
Analysts cons.   8.16    1.16
My estimate      8.35    1.27
My non-GAAP e.   9.62    1.80

Product  Units(M)
-------  --------
Mac          2.44
iPhone       5.00
iPod        10.80

3mo ending Sep-2009:

FY09Q4    Revenue($B)  EPS($)
------    -----------  ------
Analysts cons.   9.02    1.29
My estimate      9.11    1.40
My non-GAAP e.  10.63    2.04
Apple gd (est)   8.60    1.05

12mo ending Sep-2010:

FY10      Revenue($B)  EPS($)
----      -----------  ------
Analysts cons.  41.53    6.40
My estimate     44.74    7.80
My non-GAAP e.  47.51    8.95

Stock valuation:

Window  12mo starting   EPS(e)  PPS(25x)
------  -------------   ------  --------
Trailing       Oct-08     5.79       145
Fair value     Oct-09     7.80       195
1-year target  Jul-10     9.43       236
Analysts mean target                 159

Revenue breakdown:

Mac       3104 ( 2.44M x $1270)
iPhone    1689 ( 5.00M x $ 550)
iPod      1587 (10.80M x $ 147)
Music      987
Software   571
Periph     413
--------  ----
Total     8350

Income statement:

Revenue   8350
COGS      5403
GM        2948
OpEx      1349
OpInc     1599
OI&E        57
Pre-tax   1655
Tax        508
NetInc    1147
Shrs.      905
EPS       1.27

Ratios:

GM%      35.3%
OpInc%   19.1%
Tax%     30.7%
NetInc%  13.7%

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