As of Friday's close of $519.61 AAPL is trading at 10.5 times my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (7.5x ex-cash). The biggest impact to my estimates for the quarter and rest of CY14 is due to China Mobile ramp much slower than I originally modeled in January. Taking guidance quite seriously now, thus estimating a significant drawdown in iPhone/iPad channel inventory (about 4.5m units) resulting in a $2.5b revenue impact, which prevents grossly exceeding the top range of guidance for last quarter. Expect management to highlight sell-through numbers.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Mar-2014 Rev($M) EPS($) GM(%) ------------------- ------- ------ ----- Analysts consensus 43,570 10.15 Apple guide low 42,000 9.46 37.0 Apple guide high 44,000 10.53 38.0 Deagol estimates 44,053 10.60 38.1 (884m shares)
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