As of Friday's close of $97.67, AAPL is trading at a 12.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.6x ex-cash). A strong iPhone launch is providing some upside to my numbers, while iPad/Mac growth trajectory remains flat/moderate as expected (with Mac slightly better than iPad). We'll see in January if the new iPads can boost things a bit. Again, not modeling anything on Apple Watch at least until I have some more visibility, particularly on pricing.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Sep-2014 Rev($M) EPS($) GM(%) ------------------- ------- ------ ----- Analysts consensus 39,850 1.31 Apple guide low 37,000 1.12* 37.0 Apple guide high 40,000 1.32* 38.0 Deagol estimates 40,800 1.38 38.5 (5.99b shares) 3mo ending Dec-2014 Rev($M) EPS($) GM(%) ------------------- ------- ------ ----- Analysts consensus 63,520 2.40 Apple guide low (e) 59,000 2.18* 38.0 Apple guide high(e) 63,000 2.46* 39.0 Deagol estimates 64,344 2.55 39.4 (5.95b shares) *EPS guidance range derived from other figures provided by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me.
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