As of today's market open of $125.57, AAPL now trades at a 12.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (10.0x excluding cash and next-12m div).
Refined my Apple Watch estimates but it still involves significant uncertainty. Guessing 21.75m units for the next 12 months at an ASP of $575 driving revenue of $12.5b for its first year, not including $1b from additional bands, accessories and Apple Care. Should roughly double in second year.
Expecting a dividend raise to 53 cents (+13% from 47¢) quarterly, and extension of the share repurchase program to a total $140-150b by end of calendar 2016 (currently at $90b by end of 2015).
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Mar-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 55,760 2.14 Apple guide low 52,000 38.5 1.88* Apple guide high 55,000 39.5 2.11* Deagol estimates 56,155 40.3 2.22 (5.83b shares)
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