As of today's market close of $111.58, AAPL now trades at a 10.4x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (7.4x excluding next-12m cash and div).
Slightly revised FY16 rev/EPS down by ~2/3% mostly on Watch. Still plenty of upside in next year consensus rev/EPS growth of 5/7% (I'm at 11/17%), while market pricing in flat or lower EPS despite further buybacks.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Sep-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 51,060 1.88 Apple guide low 49,000 38.5 1.72* Apple guide high 51,000 39.5 1.89* Deagol estimates 51,902 39.6 1.94 (5.72b shares) 3mo ending Dec-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 76,930 3.20 Apple guide low (e) 74,000 39.0 2.98* Apple guide high(e) 78,000 40.0 3.29* Deagol estimates 78,167 40.0 3.29 (5.68b shares) *EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me 12m ending Sep-2016 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 245,140 9.79 Deagol estimates 260,245 10.72
Posts
