I might adjust things a bit if there's any announcement in January.
3mo ending Dec-2010 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guidance 23,000 4.80 Analysts consensus 24,110 5.29 Deagol estimates 26,071 6.23 3mo ending Mar-2011 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guide (est.) 20.000 4.00 Analysts consensus 20,060 4.28 Deagol estimates 21,713 5.07 12m ending Sep-2011 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 88,300 19.18 Deagol estimates 96,111 22.87 Valuation (12mo beginning on) EPS($) Y/Y 15x 20x 25x ----------------------------- ------ --- --- --- --- Trailing (Jan-2010) 17.70 73% 266 354 443 Fair value (Jan-2011) 25.16 42% 377 503 629 1yr target (Jan-2012) 31.55 25% 473 631 789 Revenue breakdown: Mac 5,579 ( 4,295 @ $1,299) iPad 4,295 ( 6,541 @ $ 657) iPhone 10,255 (16,517 @ $ 621) iPod 3,151 (19,346 @ $ 163) iTunes 1,473 Software 722 Periph 597 Income statement: Revenue 26,071 COGS 16,155 GM 9,917 OpEx 2,366 OpInc 7,550 OI&E 64 Pre-tax 7,614 Tax 1,789 NetInc 5,825 Shrs. 935 EPS 6.23 Ratios: GM% 38.0% OpInc% 29.0% Tax% 23.5% NetInc% 22.3%
Check out these fellow bloggers' estimates:
Andy Zaky: Apple to beat top-line Expectations by $2 Billion for Q1 2011 (Jan16)
Robert Leitao: Posts At Eventide FQ1 AAPL Estimates (Jan02)
18 AFB members: The AFB AAPL FQ1 Estimate Index (Jan01)
Patrick Smellie: AFB member pats (Dec29)
Dennis Hildebrand: Q1 2011 projection (Dec28)
Mark Beauch: AFB member mbeauch (Dec27)
Jeff Fosberg: AFB member Mercel (Dec27)
Alexis Cabot: AFB member awcabot (Dec23)
Horace Dediu: Estimates for Apple’s first quarter earnings (January) (Oct21)
Turley Muller: N/A
Keep an eye on Apple 2.0 for PED's pros vs. bloggers smack-down:
Posts
21 comments:
Are the "12 month valuation" estimates offset by one year?
thanks for the research and effort in putting this together.
JohnG
@ JohnG - if you read the heading on that valuation table, it reads:
Valuation (12 mo beginning on)
Nice work.
I can see them making your units and revenues, but, I'm a little more conservative on %GM and Tax rate. %PM of 22.3% is their second highest ever. Hope you are right.
Great work and thanks for sharing.
Stefan
I believe your gm is too low. Try 40 percent. Base on your hardware totals, the iTunes, peripheral and software is also low. Your gross should be 26.8 billion. Your net percent should be At least 23.5.
Anyway my take is a gross of at least 28 billion and eps of 7.17.
Does AAPL get to count the revenue from Gift Cards immediately, or do they have to wait until after the cards redeemed?
Gift cards revenue is recognized when redeemed
Great job. For your iPad estimate of 6.5M - I recall reading (probably through Digitimes so take that for what it's worth) that they hit 2M / month production around september. Are you assuming they have passed that production milestone or do you base your estimates more on sales channel numbers?
Thanks for posting! This was an Apple christmas and your past record is great, so I will agree with your estimates.
It is unbelievable that they now show a $354 price for a 20x trailing P/E in january and the P/E ratio is now about 21.5 (Ill use trailing because everybody refers to it). If the P/E stays at 21.5, we would see the price of AAPL go to $380 with a market cap of almost 350 B. Those numbers are kind of incredible for most investors.
If Federico is right and EPS hit 7, Apple could be the most valuable public company in the USA very soon.
What is your take on what will happen with the price a few days after another blowout quarter like this? Will it stay at 20x trailing P/E?
I just looked back at my October 21 predictions:
http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/21/estimates-for-apples-first-quarter-earnings-january/
Decided only to adjust the tax rate a bit to get 5.90 EPS.
Pretty close to your call on most lines. I guess we differ on margin mostly.
Revenue: $25,498 million
EPS: 5.90
iPhone unit sales: 16,163 k
iPod unit sales: 18,873 k
Mac unit sales: 4,303 k
iPad unit sales: 6,000 k
Gross margin percentage: 37.5%
As always, your work is both valuable and appreciated.
-capablanca
Very nice
What share count are you using? 930m? 950? Accounting for the share count growth?
iphoned, from the income statement section above:
NetInc 5,825
Shrs. 935
EPS 6.23
Repeating a question from above:
"What is your take on what will happen with the price a few days after another blowout quarter like this? Will it stay at 20x trailing P/E?"
The VZ announcement may be confounding things a bit right now, but let's assume the current $342.50 is the market's "fair" pricing of 20x trailing EPS. That means $5.65 is priced in (compare to consensus of $5.31 and whisper of $5.90), and if my $6.23 comes through, should justify $354.
However, my thesis is that stocks should be valued on a forward basis (at least 5 years is required for DCF but a multiple on next twelve months EPS might be a convenient approximation). As shown above I'm estimating north of $25 EPS for this calendar year, and I expect the market to eventually move to at least a 15x forward multiple which would yield $375+ as analysts catch up over the following days/weeks after earnings. The problem is they most likely won't raise next 12 months earnings enough (they're at $22.60 for FY2012, a 15x multiple, but that timeframe is in fact 3 quarters after my $25). So, it's possible AAPL stays below $360-370 until April's report, even after upwards revisions. Actual VZ iPhone sales and launch of iPad 2 should help get AAPL into the $400-450 range by then.
Of course this is all speculation on my part. The market can do pretty silly things.
Appreciate the effort! I would be one happy camper if AAPL made these numbers in aggregate. My guess would be a little closer to $6.15 EPS, based mainly on less optimistic margin numbers... But a blowout none the less!
Wow, with the Monday morning announcement of Steve Jobs' LOA, it looks like AAPL is about to get sucked into a whirlwind of pure market psychology that has nothing to do with its fundamentals.
Any thoughts on what % of the stock price is purely attributable to Steve Jobs?
I can see a 10-15% drop in the market, but it will be a great opportunity to buy.
Apple will continue to sell superior products. Think people will now consider the competition because Jobs is at home?
Wow! Congratulations, Daniel. I think you nailed it better than anyone else! $9.8B in cash flow!!!
Thanks Roy. I think Turley edged me and everyone out with his last minute revision. Congrats Turley!
I've been following you for a while now, and thanks are in order. I and my wife and our account thank you.
Congratulations deagol.
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