Monday, January 9, 2012

Fiscal 1Q 2012 Final Estimates

Apple shares today are flirting around the record all-time intraday high price of $426.70, yet that still represents a record low valuation of 8.6 times my forward-looking EPS estimate (6.6x ex-cash).

A cash balance of $409 per share is estimated by June 2016, and $432 by the end of that Fiscal Year in September 2016, still surpassing the current market price within 5 years from now (this assumes no dividends so if you're reading this in 2016 remember to add back any of those plus interest).

As for the most recent past, and immediate future:

3mo ending Dec-2011   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance         37,000     9.30
Analysts consensus     38,280     9.87
Deagol estimates       41,895    11.58

3mo ending Mar-2012   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guide (est.)     34,500     8.60
Analysts consensus     31,530     7.87
Deagol estimates       39,133    11.13

12m ending Sep-2012   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus    138,120    32.68
Deagol estimates      165,349    46.03

Valuation (12mo ending on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash  Tot
--------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ----  ---
Trailing        (Dec-2011)    32.82  83%  328    98  426
Fair value      (Dec-2012)    49.85  52%  498   147  645
1yr target      (Dec-2013)    64.31  29%  643   209  852

Revenue breakdown ($M):
Mac        6,359 ( 5,005 × $1,270)
iPod       2,710 (16,000 × $169)
iPhone    20,531 (32,500 × $632)
iPad       8,819 (14,500 × $608)
iTunes     1,932
Periph       737
Software     808

Income statement ($M):
Revenue   41,895
COGS      24,280
GM        17,615
OpEx       3,341
OpInc     14,274
OI&E         112
Pre-tax   14,386
Tax        3,453
NetInc    10,933
Shrs.        944
EPS       $11.58

GM%        42.0%
OpInc%     34.1%
Tax%       24.0%
NetInc%    26.1%


Parker said...

Good to see you back! I've got no reservations about this quarter, but as always the guidance will set the tone. If they really do guide in the $8.50+ range we should be looking good.

Stefan said...

I've got about $12 with more iPhones and Mac, but less iPod and iPads. I don't have "channel checkers" out there, so inside of some error tolerance, it is all intelligent guessing anyway.

For the FY EPS, I have a bit less than $46 and up to $48. It all depends on when the next iPhone will be released.

Thanks for sharing.


Anonymous said...

Do you still have your spreadsheet available? I'm interested in seeing your EPS revision history. Hoping it continues to rise. Thanks

ptmmac said...

I just wanted to offer congratulations for missing by almost as much this quarter on the other side. :-) I believe that your long position should be paying off tomorrow. I guess this proves that last quarter was the outlier and this quarter we are right back where we ought to be. Go Apple!

JavaJack said...

Strong hints that there will be dividends in the future. Can anyone speculate what these dividends might look like?

Anonymous said...

They have $60B held outside and 33 Billion
held inside. They will easily generate another
$15 Billion held inside in 2012. Given all this,
assuming they want to keep $20B+ U.S. money on the books,
they can easily payout $15B a year. So I would round it
to $4 quarter dividend per share.
That is the low bound. They can go higher.