Monday, July 14, 2014

Fiscal 3Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Monday's close of $96.45 AAPL is trading at a 13.0x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.8x ex-cash).

None of my estimates include any new product categories, but I do expect a new iPhone in late September and new iPads in November. Since I really doubt the market has decided to fully value Apple's current product lines as I project them (within my theory of 10x fwd EPS plus cash), it's clear that expectations about new categories for this year and next are somewhat baked into the current price. Keep this in mind as we get past the earnings report and rest of the year announcements.


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     37,860     1.22
Apple guide low        36,000     1.13e  37.0
Apple guide high       38,000     1.25e  38.0
Deagol estimates       38,755     1.33   38.7 (5.98b shares)


3mo ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     40,650     1.34
Apple guide low (e)    38,000     1.28   37.5
Apple guide high(e)    40,000     1.41   38.5
Deagol estimates       41,763     1.51   38.7 (5.85b shares)


12m ending Sep-2015   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus    195,060     6.93
Deagol estimates      195,224     7.58


Valuation (12mo ending on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash* Div  Tot
--------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ----  ---  ---
Trailing        (Jun-2014)     6.25   9%   62    22    2   86
Fair value      (Jun-2015)     7.40  19%   74    24    2  100
1yr target      (Jun-2016)     7.98   8%   80    29    2  111

* Cash/share balance net of long-term debt


F3Q14 Revenue breakdown (millions, except ASPs):
Mac        5,238 ( 4.0 × $1,310)
iPod         320 ( 2.0 × $160)
iPhone    20,707 (35.0 × $592)
iPad       6,895 (15.0 × $460)
iT/S/S     4,378
Accssr     1,218

Income statement (millions, except EPS):
Revenue   38,755
COGS      23,765
GM        14,989
OpEx       4,449
OpInc     10,541
OI&E         234
Pre-tax   10,775
Tax        2,801
NetInc     7,973
Shrs.      5,981
EPS       $ 1.33

Ratios:
GM%        38.7%
OpInc%     27.2%
Tax%       26.0%
NetInc%    20.6%

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is the deferred revenue from th past 12 months included in your revenue estimate?

Daniel Tello said...

Not sure what you mean, Anon. Deferred revenue gets recognized under different schedules depending on the revenue source, and a lot of it is due to sales which occurred earlier than the last 12 months.

Estimating the precise contribution from any particular period is practically impossible, but the smoothing effect on net reported revenue is quite subtle and gradual, particularly under these days' modest growth rates.