Fiscal 4Q 2015 Final Estimates

As of today's market close of $111.58, AAPL now trades at a 10.4x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (7.4x excluding next-12m cash and div).

Slightly revised FY16 rev/EPS down by ~2/3% mostly on Watch. Still plenty of upside in next year consensus rev/EPS growth of 5/7% (I'm at 11/17%), while market pricing in flat or lower EPS despite further buybacks.


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    51,060          1.88
Apple guide low       49,000   38.5   1.72*
Apple guide high      51,000   39.5   1.89*
Deagol estimates      51,902   39.6   1.94 (5.72b shares)


3mo ending Dec-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    76,930           3.20
Apple guide low (e)   74,000   39.0    2.98*
Apple guide high(e)   78,000   40.0    3.29*
Deagol estimates      78,167   40.0    3.29 (5.68b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   245,140   9.79
Deagol estimates     260,245  10.72

Fiscal 3Q 2015 Final Estimates

As of today's market close of $123.28, AAPL now trades at a 11.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (8.7x excluding next-12m cash and div).

Apple better start guiding a bit more realistically or analysts will start adding 10% to top of range from the outset no matter what. Beating by 5% revenue is ok but going back to Peter Oppenheimer's 15% (and 30% EPS) average sand-bagging is dangerous. (Game of guidance chicken as Mav likes to say. Hey Mav!)


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    48,970          1.78
Apple guide low       46,000   38.5   1.57*
Apple guide high      48,000   39.5   1.74*
Deagol estimates      51,249   40.3   1.95 (5.78b shares)


3mo ending Sep-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    50,990           1.86
Apple guide low (e)   49,000   38.5    1.70*
Apple guide high(e)   52,000   39.5    1.92*
Deagol estimates      52,801   40.3    1.97 (5.74b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   245,420   9.74
Deagol estimates     266,246  11.02

Fiscal 2Q 2015 Final Estimates

As of today's market open of $125.57, AAPL now trades at a 12.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (10.0x excluding cash and next-12m div).

Refined my Apple Watch estimates but it still involves significant uncertainty. Guessing 21.75m units for the next 12 months at an ASP of $575 driving revenue of $12.5b for its first year, not including $1b from additional bands, accessories and Apple Care. Should roughly double in second year.

Expecting a dividend raise to 53 cents (+13% from 47¢) quarterly, and extension of the share repurchase program to a total $140-150b by end of calendar 2016 (currently at $90b by end of 2015).


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Mar-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    55,760          2.14
Apple guide low       52,000   38.5   1.88*
Apple guide high      55,000   39.5   2.11*
Deagol estimates      56,155   40.3   2.22 (5.83b shares)

Fiscal 1Q 2015 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $105.99, AAPL is trading at a 12.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.5x ex-cash).

I expect very strong results for Q1 with record-breaking net income of $15.7b, but guidance for Q2 may come in light (even at the top end) relative to expectations. Hope I'm wrong on that.

I'm estimating last quarter's revenue growth in the high teens (setting the tone for the whole 2015 Fiscal Year) as well as strong +39% gross margins, majorly driven by a high proportion of the iPhone user base upgrading to 6 and 6 Plus with unit sell-through growth estimated at 29/24/17% for Q1/Q2/FY15 (compared to 11/27/16% for Q3/Q4/FY14) and FY15 ASPs holding steady or slightly increasing despite FX headwinds early in the fiscal year.

I've finally (and very tentatively) modeled something for Apple Watch: as a base case (for now) I consider it a solid accessory for the iPhone and then strongly discount it by 25-35% (due to final product uncertainty and other unknowns such as pricing potential) which results in about 15% of compatible iPhone penetration (75m of 500m iPhone-5-and-higher user base after first 3 years).

Those saying Watch doesn't move the needle must not be looking beyond FY2015 at all, as in fact I model only 6.5m units for this fiscal year with shipments starting in the end of March contributing 1m units in the current quarter. Yet, my conservative base case already represents about 25% of the company-wide revenue growth in '16 and '17, getting to a modest $20b by then (somewhat slower than iPad which had the steepest revenue uptake of any Apple product, but this excludes additional wristbands and other Watch accessories which I model separately and even more tentatively). Again, it could easily be 2x that, considering the fast adoption of compatible iPhones and the customer base's high acquisition power.