Saturday, January 16, 2016

Fiscal 1Q 2016 Final Estimates


As of Friday's market close of $97.13, AAPL is trading at a 9.1x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (6.0x when excluding next-12m net cash and div).

On last quarter, $19b in net income says enough (details below). Looking forward, I'm revising my next 12-18 months valuation target from $164 to $157 due to lowered estimated revenue and EPS (FY16/17 by roughly 4/5%) mostly on iPhone (now flat/single-digit unit sell-through growth).

Promising guidance: Contrary to some recent sell-side reports, I believe iPhone channel inventories as of end of September were still at or near the lower end of the 5-7 weeks range of forward-looking demand. Another week of channel fill (representing 3-4m units spread through 1H16) would be appropriate, and even adding 6-7m would not breach the upper 7 week limit. This would support flat sell-through (any additional demand e.g. from rumored new 4" form factor would require even higher levels), allows for slight shipments growth, and provides upside to current quarter (F2Q16) recently lowered sell-side estimates in particular.

I expect management to act opportunistically on share buybacks during the current quarter, likely depleting the remaining ~$30b already authorized in the program before the end of the FY and requiring an expansion to be announced in April. However, beyond FY16 I'm not modeling more than what's needed to offset employee grants (mostly due to concerns/ignorance about comfortable long-term debt levels and foreign tax/repatriation political uncertainty), which also implies further potential upside to EPS beyond the current quarter's estimated strong guidance if a significant authorization is announced in April.


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Dec-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    76,760          3.24
Apple guide low       75,500   39.0   3.09*
Apple guide high      77,500   40.0   3.31*
Deagol estimates      78,464   40.4   3.39 (5.60b shares)

3mo ending Mar-2016  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    56,700           2.28
Apple guide low (e)   58,000   39.0    2.25*
Apple guide high(e)   60,000   40.0    2.45*
Deagol estimates      60,751   40.5    2.52 (5.52b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   238,570   9.58
Deagol estimates     248,245  10.33


Valuation (fwd-12mo from)  EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash*  Div  Tot
-------------------------  ------  ---  ---  ----  ----  ---
Trailing       (Jan-2015)    9.52  28%   95    27  2.03  124
Fair value     (Jan-2016)   10.68  12%  107    31  2.26  140
1yr target     (Jan-2017)   11.61   9%  116    38  2.56  157

* Cash/share balance net of long-term debt

(click to enlarge)


F1Q16 Revenue breakdown:
iPhone    51,311 (78.0 × $658)
iPad       8,463 (19.0 × $445)
Mac        7,079 (5.75 × $1,231)
Services   5,407
Other      6,204 (6.50 × $519 = 3,375 Watch)

Income statement:
Revenue   78,464
COGS      46,794
GM        31,671  40.4%
OpEx       6,333
OpInc     25,337  32.3%
OI&E         399
Pre-tax   25,737
Tax        6,743  26.2%
NetInc    18,994  24.2%
Shares     5,602
EPS($)      3.39

(units, shares, and $ in millions except $ASP, EPS, and ratios)

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