Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Fiscal 3Q 2019 Final Estimates


As of today's close of $204.50, AAPL is trading at a 15.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (14.0x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).

Don't get fooled by the most boring quarters, like, ever. Another consecutive "no collapse" quarter is good, means last Q1 adjustments worked. Not sure why WS sees 3% rev decline in Sep after flat or slight growth in June, in any case, strong Q4 guidance may surprise (but no earns growth until Q1).

Emphasis on intriguing longer-term themes is great. Key behind-the-scenes platform and business model shifts, happening almost in slow-motion, into new services and broader ecosystem relationships eventually will have huge effects on long-term fundamentals, but ironically will be hard to notice for some time and confound most pundits.

Also hard to explain, so I'll leave it at that.


Detailed estimates:


3mo ending Jun19  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   53.4     -  2.10
Apple guide low    52.5  37.0  2.00*
Apple guide high   54.5  38.0  2.21*
My estimates       53.8  37.8  2.15 (4.59b shares)


3mo ending Sep19  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   61.2     -  2.69
Apple gde lo (e)   61.0  38.0  2.70*
Apple gde hi (e)   63.0  38.5  2.88*
My estimates       62.8  38.3  2.85 (4.50b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep20  Rev$B   $EPS
----------------  -----  -----
Analysts consens  268.2  12.62
My estimates      275.7  13.56


Valuation
Timeframe  NTMfrom   $EPS  Y/Y   Mult  Val  $*   Div  Tot
---------  -------  -----  ---  -----  ---  --  ----  ---
Trail Val  Jul2018  11.70   6%  11.25  132  21  2.96  156
 Fair Val  Jul2019  13.20  13%  12.25  162  17  3.16  181
1y Target  Jul2020  14.74  12%  13.11  193  12  3.50  209

*Cash per share balance net of debt and commercial paper
(click to enlarge)
Statements of Operations Revenues F3Q19e F3Q18* Y/Y% -------- ------ ------ ----- iPhone 24,908 29,470 -15.5 Mac 6,050 5,258 15.1 iPad 5,506 4,634 18.8 W/H/A 5,359 3,733 43.6 -------- ------ ------ ----- Products 41,822 43,095 -3.0 Services 11,971 10,170 17.7 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot Revs 53,793 53,265 1.0 Gross Margin Breakdown (est) -------- ------ ------ ----- Products 12,688 14,325 -11.4 Services 7,630 6,096 25.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM 20,318 20,421* -0.5 -------- ------ ------ ----- Prod GM% 30.3% 33.2% -2.9 Svcs GM% 63.7% 59.9% 3.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM% 37.8% 38.3% -0.6 Op Expns 8,750 7,809 12.0 -------- ------ ------ ----- OpIncome 11,569 12,612 -8.3 Op Mrgn% 21.5% 23.7% -2.2 OIE 250 672 -62.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Pre-Tax 11,819 13,284 -11.0 Tax Rate 16.5% 13.3% 3.2 Tax Prov 1,950 1,765 10.5 -------- ------ ------ ----- Net Incm 9,868 11,519 -14.3 Net Mrg% 18.3% 21.6% -3.3 Dil Shrs 4,593 4,927 -6.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- EPS $2.15 $2.34 -8.1 Amounts in millions except EPS in dollars and ratios in % * F3Q18 actual as reported except Gross Margin Breakdown

2 comments:

JavaJack said...

Thanks for your continuing dedication to reporting this.

Daniel Tello said...

No problem, JavaJack, and thank you for reading it throughout all these years.