As of today's opening price of $164.89, AAPL trades at a 23.2x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (22.6x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).
Capital return program update (my expectations):
$90-100b added to buyback authorization
$41.7b remained as of Dec and about $17-20b as of April
Quarterly dividend raised 13% to 26 cents
$90-100b added to buyback authorization
$41.7b remained as of Dec and about $17-20b as of April
Quarterly dividend raised 13% to 26 cents
Detailed estimates: 3mo ending Mar23 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 93.0 - 1.43 My estimates 96.1 44.8 1.54 (15.87b shares) 3mo ending Jun23 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 84.7 - 1.22 Apple gde lo (e) 86.0 43.5 1.29* Apple gde hi (e) 91.0 44.5 1.44* My estimates 93.0 44.5 1.50 (15.73b shares) *EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me 12m ending Sep23 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- Analysts consens 387.9 5.95 My estimates 406.5 6.53 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- Trail Val Apr2022 5.90 -4% 22.6 133 3.1 0.92 137 Frwrd Val Apr2023 7.11 20% 23.6 168 2.9 1.04 172 1y Target Apr2024 7.63 7% 23.9 182 2.1 1.16 186 2y Value! Apr2025 8.16 7% 24.0 196 1.5 1.32 198 *Cash per share balance net of debt and commercial paper(click to enlarge)
F2Q23 Statements of Operations Revenues F2Q23e F2Q22 Y/Y% -------- ------ ------ ----- iPhone 49,699 50,570 -1.7 Mac 8,387 10,435 -19.6 iPad 6,908 7,646 -9.7 W/H/A 10,499 8,806 19.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Products 75,492 77,457 -2.5 Services 20,579 19,821 3.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot Revs 96,072 97,278 -1.2 Gross Margin Breakdown -------- ------ ------ ----- Products 28,073 28,167 -0.3 Services 14,941 14,392 3.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM 43,013 42,559 1.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- Prod GM% 37.2% 36.4% 0.8 Svcs GM% 72.6% 72.6% 0.0 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM% 44.8% 43.7% 1.0 Op Expns 13,720 12,580 9.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- OpIncome 29,294 29,979 -2.3 Op Mrgn% 30.5% 30.8% -0.3 OIE -102 160 N/A -------- ------ ------ ----- Pre-Tax 29,192 30,139 -3.1 Tax Rate 16.3% 17.0% -0.7 Tax Prov 4,758 5,129 -7.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Net Incm 24,434 25,010 -2.3 Net Mrg% 25.4% 25.7% -0.3 Dil Shrs 15,870 16,403 -3.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- EPS $1.54 $1.52 1.0 Amounts in millions except EPS in dollars and ratios in %
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4 comments:
Hi Daniel, thanks for sharing! - Roger
Hi Daniel, what are your thoughts as PE nears 32x and share price is already above your April24 target? - Roger
Hi Roger,
For long-term investors, I’d hold at this price or buy dips, maybe hope for any decent retrace of this year’s move, say 170s or 160s. I got targets >200 ‘25 and ~230s ‘27 but of course the further out the hazier the view (most likely upside to those). Maybe sell some covered calls if already happy with what you got and don’t mind getting exercised. For traders, I imagine shorting or puts looks tasty from here, just use stop losses and all that fun risk management. Nobody knows anything ever, including me, so take it all with heaps of salt.
I'm looking forward for your thoughts on Q3 earnings (cash flow and buybacks), and commentary after Luca has given some general color for Q4. Thanks for sharing.
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