Friday, January 16, 2009

Historical record

Another investor had the following suggestion:

WJR42 said:
Deagol, I think you should insert about 2 years previous numbers by quarter and year end along with your estimates for those periods. This info would give your model more standing, especially for anyone who is not familiar with the reliability.

Ok, here's a chart comparing the last 16 quarterly estimates from my model, analysts consensus, and actual results as reported by Apple:

(click on image for larger view)

And here's one comparing the model's 12-month forward-looking estimate and the actual results from Apple:

(click on image for larger view)

I believe it's possible to verify these claims by digging for my posts in the Yahoo message board (up to July 2006), the Investor Village board (sporadically), and the Apple Finance board at The Mac Observer (up to this moment).



Anonymous said...

hi deagol

can your spreadsheet track the non-gaap eps since the iphone? it will be a good number to correlate to when calculating pe ranges, also to have a record/graphic that can be sent around the community to remind people and any analysts that may read it. yahoo, etc, don't track those numbers and they're hard to dig up.

also, as you and i know the non-gaap numbers would put aapl's PE <10 and other ridiculous things. thanks!

deagol said...

Yes. You can find the adjusted revenue in the 'Long-term (US+EU)' tab, cells J142:J183, and the adjusted EPS in cells AA142:AA183. I'll see if I can make a simple chart for that.

We should be careful about emphasizing these measures too much in the future because once the initial hypergrowth period for the iPhone is behind us the GAAP numbers will eventually catch up to non-GAAP, and then we'll find ourselves trying to emphasize the steady growth rates coming from the GAAP numbers instead of the drastic slowdown which will turn up in non-GAAP.