Thursday, January 15, 2009

Welcome!

So I finally got around to setting this up. The lack of file sharing had kept me away, but I decided this vehicle can still help get the word out about my work, and I can always link from here to where the files can be downloaded.

Apple reports on Wednesday, January 21, 2009. So, without further ado, here are my latest and final estimates for FY2009 Q2:

Long term recommendation:

STRONG BUY below $189
buy from $189 to $211
neutral from $211 to $235
sell above $235


3mo ending Dec-2008:



FY09Q1 Revenue($B) EPS($)
----------- ------
Apple guidance 9.50 1.21
Analysts cons. 9.85 1.39
My estimate 10.88 1.80
My non-GAAP e. 13.43 2.83

Product Units(M)
------- --------
Mac 2.7
iPhone 6.0
iPod 19.5


3mo ending Mar-2009:



FY09Q2 Revenue($B) EPS($)
----------- ------
Analysts cons. 8.33 1.13
My estimate 9.64 1.52
My non-GAAP e. 10.77 1.97
Apple gd (est) 8.85 1.15


12mo ending Sep-2009:



FY09 Revenue($B) EPS($)
----------- ------
Analysts cons. 36.17 5.05
My estimate 41.13 6.50
My non-gaap e. 47.10 8.92


Valuation (25 x fwd EPS):



Timeframe Period Price fwd-12mo EPS
------ ----- ------------
Fair Value Mar-09 189 7.57
1yr Target Dec-09 235 9.40
Analysts mean target 131




[download page]


Apologies for the horribly dry and messed up presentation. Maybe I'll have to try some new ideas, so any suggestions are welcome.

Cheers,
:D

2 comments:

hltr said...

This blog is long overdue. Long live Deagol's AAPL Model

ChasMac said...

Thanks for sharing, great work as always Deagol! This helps us AAPL investors more than anything else out there.