Welcome!

So I finally got around to setting this up. The lack of file sharing had kept me away, but I decided this vehicle can still help get the word out about my work, and I can always link from here to where the files can be downloaded.

Apple reports on Wednesday, January 21, 2009. So, without further ado, here are my latest and final estimates for FY2009 Q2:

Long term recommendation:

STRONG BUY below $189
buy from $189 to $211
neutral from $211 to $235
sell above $235

3mo ending Dec-2008:

FY09Q1    Revenue($B)  EPS($)
          -----------  ------
Apple guidance   9.50    1.21
Analysts cons.   9.85    1.39
My estimate     10.88    1.80
My non-GAAP e.  13.43    2.83

Product  Units(M)
-------  --------
Mac           2.7
iPhone        6.0
iPod         19.5   

3mo ending Mar-2009:

FY09Q2    Revenue($B)  EPS($)
          -----------  ------
Analysts cons.   8.33    1.13
My estimate      9.64    1.52
My non-GAAP e.  10.77    1.97
Apple gd (est)   8.85    1.15   

12mo ending Sep-2009:

FY09      Revenue($B)  EPS($)
          -----------  ------
Analysts cons.  36.17    5.05
My estimate     41.13    6.50
My non-gaap e.  47.10    8.92   

Valuation (25 x fwd EPS):

Timeframe   Period  Price  fwd-12mo EPS
            ------  -----  ------------
Fair Value  Mar-09    189          7.57
1yr Target  Dec-09    235          9.40
Analysts mean target  131   

[download page]


Apologies for the horribly dry and messed up presentation. Maybe I'll have to try some new ideas, so any suggestions are welcome.

Cheers,
:D