Pro analysts 51% worse than amateurs
Apple today reported $13.50b revenue, $3.33 EPS, 8.75M iPhones, 10.89M iPods, 2.94M Macs, and 41.67% gross margin, beating everyone down to a pulp.
I took PED's estimates compilation of amateur and professional AAPL analysts, computed each estimate's percent error against Apple's actual numbers, averaged the six categories' errors for each analyst, and ranked them all from best to worst. I also averaged the errors for the six amateurs and the 19 pros, and calculated how much worse these did in relation to us amateurs. Here's the table.
%Err Analyst, Affiliation
----- ---------------------------------------
5.9% Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist
7.2% Daniel Tello, Deagol's AAPL Model
7.2% Robert Paul Leitao, Apple Finance Board
7.3% Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross
8.2% Ashok Kumar, Rodman & Renshaw
8.7% Bill Shope, Credit Suisse
8.8% Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board
9.6% Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board
9.9% Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer
10.1% Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital
10.3% Ben Reitzes, Barclay's Capital
10.3% Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna Financial
10.6% Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research
10.8% Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams
11.8% Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan
11.9% Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank
11.9% Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
12.1% Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
12.3% Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel
12.3% Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros.
13.3% Keith Bachman, BMO Capital
13.4% Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch
13.7% Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech
14.1% Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley
14.3% Richard Gardner, Citigroup
----- ---------------------------------------
11.6% Professionals
7.7% Amateurs
----- ---------------------------------------
51.4% Pros error increase % on amateurs
Clearly Steve Jobs, the sneaky rascal, punked us all with his announcement of 50M total iPhones.
I came $905M (-6.7%) below actual reported revenue mostly due to huge iPhone and iPod upside, but also all other revenue sources except Mac which almost compensated for these. ASPs came in higher than expected for iPod but Mac and iPhone were lower. I keep underestimating peripherals by a relatively significant amount (-12.8%) although it's not significant in absolute terms.
Fortunately I guessed right at gross margin percentage, so this near $1b error comes down to almost $0.4b beat in operating income. Now, if one were to apply a normal tax rate to that, my net income would have come only $280M below, resulting in an EPS beat of 30 cents. But a 24% effective tax rate (630bps below normal) turned it into a 56 cent beat. That's 46% of the upside caused by an unpredictably low tax rate. How is one supposed to model for this, if Apple itself can't even guide within 20% of the effective tax rate? In any case, as a shareholder I won't complain.
Complain? Are you nuts? $333, baby. Come on. Right now. Hell yea! lol
. Est Act Err Err%
. ------ ------ ------ ------
Units (K):
Mac 2,949 2,943 + 6 + 0.2%
iPhone 7,500 8,752 -1,252 -14.3%
iPod 10,400 10,885 - 485 - 4.5%
ASP ($):
Mac 1,320 1,278 + 42 + 3.3%
iPhone 635 622 + 13 + 2.1%
iPod 162 171 - 9 - 5.5%
Revenue breakdown ($M):
Mac 3,893 3,760 + 133 + 3.5%
iPhone 4,764 5,445 - 681 -12.5%
iPod 1,681 1,861 - 180 - 9.7%
Music 1,238 1,327 - 89 - 6.7%
Perph 412 472 - 60 -12.8%
SW 608 634 - 26 - 4.2%
Income statement ($M):
Revenue 12,594 13,499 - 905 - 6.7%
COGS 7,367 7,874 - 507 - 6.4%
GM 5,227 5,625 - 398 - 7.1%
OpEx 1,631 1,646 - 15 - 0.9%
OpInc 3,595 3,979 - 384 - 9.6%
OI&E 35 50 - 15 -29.8%
Pre-tax 3,631 4,029 - 398 - 9.9%
Tax 1,089 955 + 134 +14.1%
NetInc 2,541 3,074 - 533 -17.3%
Shrs. 918 923 - 5 - 0.5%
EPS 2.77 3.33 - 0.56 -16.9%
Ratios:
GM% 41.5% 41.7% - 0.2% - 0.4%
OpInc% 28.5% 29.5% - 0.9% - 3.1%
Tax% 30.0% 23.7% + 6.3% +26.6%
NetInc% 20.2% 22.8% - 2.6% -11.4%
One last thing, Apple guided for $13.0b to $13.4b in revenue, midpoint $13.2b, and $2.28 to $2.39 in EPS, midpoint $2.335. This was my guidance prediction made a week ago:
3mo ending Jun-2010 Rev($M) EPS($)
------------------- ------- ------
Apple guidance (e) 13.200 2.40
Analysts consensus 12,913 2.63
Deagol estimates 14,675 3.21
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