Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Revised: Fiscal 4Q 2012 Final Estimates

I'm not a fan of revising estimates the day before the report. However, this time Apple has essentially pre-anounced the iPad number and everyone will post their revisions, so I might as well get on with it. In addition to the more than four million iPad units shortfall, I'm revising the Mac estimate lower by half a million units mainly on an inventory drawdown and, to a lesser extent, widespread reports of PC market weakness.

These changes result in about $3 billion lower revenue and $0.80 lower EPS for the quarter. The gross margin percent goes up about 70 basis points on the higher iPhone mix.

Additionally, I took this opportunity to tweak the longer-term projections to account for the new products introduced yesterday. Here are the usual details:


3mo ending Sep-2012   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance         34,000     7.65
Analysts consensus     35,800     8.75
Deagol estimates       36,063     9.68


3mo ending Dec-2012   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Deagol estimates       59,409    17.79
Analysts consensus     54,980    15.41
Apple guide (est.)     52,200    13.60


12m ending Sep-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Deagol estimates      211,812    62.97
Analysts consensus    193,970    53.24


Valuation (12mo ending on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash  Div   Tot
--------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ----  ---  ----
Trailing        (Sep-2012)    45.18  63%  452   130    3   585
Fair value      (Sep-2013)    62.97  39%  630   177   11   818
1yr target      (Sep-2014)    81.50  29%  815   237   15  1067


F4Q12 Revenue breakdown ($M):
Mac        6,037 ( 4,878 × $1,238)
iPod         872 ( 5,600 × $156)
iPhone    17,627 (28,000 × $630)
iPad       7,789 (14,650 × $532)
iTunes     2,144
Periph       729
Software     864

Income statement ($M):
Revenue   36,063
COGS      20,382
GM        15,681
OpEx       3,516
OpInc     12,165
OI&E         178
Pre-tax   12,343
Tax        3,147
NetInc     9,195
Shrs.        950
EPS        $9.68

Ratios:
GM%        43.5%
OpInc%     33.7%
Tax%       25.5%
NetInc%    25.5%

3 comments:

JavaJack said...

Daniel: Thanks for your ongoing analysis of Apple. Tonight I looked back at the archives and some of the things we were talking about in 2009 and 2010. It's hard to believe how much Apple has grown and how accurate you have been with your projections. Looking at history reveals the truth.

Jack Tunnicliffe

Miguel said...

What do you think of the guidance for the next quarter. Do you really believe margins will drop so much? It seems the Rev number is so high, given the EPS guidance. Thanks. Miguel Octavio

JavaJack said...

Would love to hear your comments on what's going on with the stock price. This seems insane given the profits and cash Apple is amassing, yet the analysts have gone cold on Apple forward looking.