Fiscal 4Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $97.67, AAPL is trading at a 12.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.6x ex-cash). A strong iPhone launch is providing some upside to my numbers, while iPad/Mac growth trajectory remains flat/moderate as expected (with Mac slightly better than iPad). We'll see in January if the new iPads can boost things a bit. Again, not modeling anything on Apple Watch at least until I have some more visibility, particularly on pricing.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     39,850     1.31
Apple guide low        37,000     1.12*  37.0
Apple guide high       40,000     1.32*  38.0
Deagol estimates       40,800     1.38   38.5 (5.99b shares)


3mo ending Dec-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     63,520     2.40
Apple guide low (e)    59,000     2.18*  38.0
Apple guide high(e)    63,000     2.46*  39.0
Deagol estimates       64,344     2.55   39.4 (5.95b shares)

*EPS guidance range derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me.

Fiscal 3Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Monday's close of $96.45 AAPL is trading at a 13.0x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.8x ex-cash).

None of my estimates include any new product categories, but I do expect a new iPhone in late September and new iPads in November. Since I really doubt the market has decided to fully value Apple's current product lines as I project them (within my theory of 10x fwd EPS plus cash), it's clear that expectations about new categories for this year and next are somewhat baked into the current price. Keep this in mind as we get past the earnings report and rest of the year announcements.


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     37,860     1.22
Apple guide low        36,000     1.13e  37.0
Apple guide high       38,000     1.25e  38.0
Deagol estimates       38,755     1.33   38.7 (5.98b shares)


3mo ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     40,650     1.34
Apple guide low (e)    38,000     1.28   37.5
Apple guide high(e)    40,000     1.41   38.5
Deagol estimates       41,763     1.51   38.7 (5.85b shares)


12m ending Sep-2015   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus    195,060     6.93
Deagol estimates      195,224     7.58

Fiscal 2Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $519.61 AAPL is trading at 10.5 times my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (7.5x ex-cash). The biggest impact to my estimates for the quarter and rest of CY14 is due to China Mobile ramp much slower than I originally modeled in January. Taking guidance quite seriously now, thus estimating a significant drawdown in iPhone/iPad channel inventory (about 4.5m units) resulting in a $2.5b revenue impact, which prevents grossly exceeding the top range of guidance for last quarter. Expect management to highlight sell-through numbers.


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Mar-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     43,570    10.15
Apple guide low        42,000     9.46   37.0
Apple guide high       44,000    10.53   38.0
Deagol estimates       44,053    10.60   38.1 (884m shares)

'Twas An iPad (mini) Christmas Indeed

"I think it’s going to be an iPad Christmas"
–Tim Cook, last conference call.


Over the last 4 months I've been keeping track of these really nice reports from mixpanel breaking down the iPhone and iPad "installed bases" by models over time. Go ahead and have a look, there's plenty of interesting stuff there.

Yes, I realize this is usage data and does not necessarily reflect the real unit share of active devices by model (much less unit sales). For a great primer on the critical differences between all the market share metrics, Charles Arthur's article at The Guardian is a must read (also this).

In any case, usage data are still quite useful as an additional angle on installed base dynamics. I decided to focus on the weekly changes in the reported percent shares rather than the absolute value, since this second order (or first derivative) metric more clearly reveals (at least to me) all the nuanced shifts and bumps in the data, while the absolute share data seem a bit dull. Particularly, I wanted to focus on the recent trends that have developed since the respective launches for the new iPhones (late Sep) and iPads (early Nov) compared to the big bump for the week of Christmas (12/23-12/29) and the apparently more modest post-Christmas trend reset seen up to now. Just from looking at the charts in the mixpanel reports, the trends before and after Christmas for each model's usage seem quite steady and consistent.

Fiscal 1Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of today's close of $546.39 AAPL is trading at 10.2 times my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (7.5x ex-cash). The China Mobile deal allows me to continue to revise upwards, particularly beyond this year which is reflected in continued double-digit annual EPS growth for the next three calendar years. However, I've toned down iPhone margins a bit for FY14.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Dec-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus     57,380    14.07
Deagol estimates       59,005    14.92 (895m shares)


3mo ending Mar-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     45,750    10.86
Apple guide lo (e)     47,000    11.45    37.0
Apple guide hi (e)     51,000    13.05    38.0
Deagol estimates       51,585    13.22    37.8 (875m shares)