Fiscal 4Q 2023 Final Estimates

As of Friday's closing price of $168.22, AAPL trades at a 23.8x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (23.4x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).

First of all, sorry for missing last quarter. I had some issues adapting in time to a new version of Excel, still getting used to somewhat annoying new quirks. I should've planned it a couple months before crunch time, my bad.

Hopefully estimates are about done getting revised down. It wasn't like just a weak quarter or two but more gradual, with the impact mostly felt cumulatively over the last two years. As an illustrative reference point, a year ago I was expecting Rev/EPS for this FY of $431.4b/$7.12, which now ended up at $385.6b/$6.11 (-11%/-14%), and FY24 projected EPS of $7.61 now down to $7.06 (-7%) might still be slightly optimistic. But I feel the downward revisions are getting smaller (see vertical revision arrows in chart detail below).

Nonetheless, the mid/long-term projection has been more resilient, holding up at mid/high single-digits growth in Rev/EPS, in essence the only change being it stalled for the last couple of years, as the expected post-pandemic growth slowdown turned out more like a pause.

Product-wise, need a strong lineup for Mac and iPad to overcome this post-pandemic dip. We'll see what tonight's event offers for Mac, but must revitalize iPad in the spring to justify my return to growth next year. Don't expect any discernible impact from Vision Pro for the next 2-3 years. Margins look incredible, driven by continued mix shift into Services.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep23  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   89.3     -  1.39
My estimates       91.9  44.5  1.45 (15.68b shares)


3mo ending Dec23  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens  123.0     -  2.10
My estimates      126.8  43.6  2.17 (15.57b shares)


12m ending Sep24  Rev$B  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----
Analysts consens  404.3  6.54
My estimates      425.1  7.06


Valuation
Timeframe  NTMfrom  $EPS  Y/Y  Mult  Val   $*   Div  Tot
---------  -------  ----  ---  ----  ---  ---  ----  ---
Trail Val  Oct2022  6.11   0%  23.2  142  3.3  0.94  146
Frwrd Val  Oct2023  7.06  15%  23.8  168  2.3  1.02  171
1y Target  Oct2024  7.82  11%  23.9  187  1.6  1.14  190
2y Value!  Oct2025  8.39   7%  24.0  201  1.3  1.28  204

*Cash per share balance net of debt and commercial paper


(click to enlarge)



F4Q23 Statements of Operations

Revenues  F4Q23e   F4Q22   Y/Y%
--------  ------  ------  -----
iPhone    44,077  42,626    3.4
Mac        9,639  11,508  -16.2
iPad       5,927   7,174  -17.4
W/H/A     10,002   9,650    3.7
--------  ------  ------  -----
Products  69,645  70,958   -1.9
Services  22,209  19,188   15.7
--------  ------  ------  -----
Tot Revs  91,854  90,146    1.9

Gross Margin Breakdown
--------  ------  ------  -----
Products  25,032  24,571    1.9
Services  15,808  13,524   16.9
--------  ------  ------  -----
Tot GM    40,841  38,095    7.2
--------  ------  ------  -----
Prod GM%   35.9%   34.6%    1.3
Svcs GM%   71.2%   70.5%    0.7
--------  ------  ------  -----
Tot GM%    44.5%   42.3%    2.2

Op Expns  13,593  13,201    3.0
--------  ------  ------  -----
OpIncome  27,248  24,894    9.5
Op Mrgn%   29.7%   27.6%    2.0

OIE         -200    -237  -15.6
--------  ------  ------  -----
Pre-Tax   27,048  24,657    9.7

Tax Rate   16.0%   16.0%    0.0
Tax Prov   4,328   3,936   10.0
--------  ------  ------  -----
Net Incm  22,720  20,721    9.6
Net Mrg%   24.7%   23.0%    1.7

Dil Shrs  15,680  16,118   -2.7
--------  ------  ------  -----
EPS        $1.45   $1.29   12.7

Amounts in millions except EPS in dollars and ratios in %