Fiscal 3Q 2010 Final Estimates

Apple now trading at 12.1 times my FY2011 EPS (9.8x after excluding cash)

3mo ending Jun-2010    Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------    -------   ------
Apple guidance          13,200     2.34
Analysts consensus      14,604     3.05
Deagol estimates        15,750     3.57


3mo ending Sep-2010    Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------    -------   ------
Apple guide (est.)      16,450     3.27
Analysts consensus      16,453     3.69
Deagol estimates        18,271     4.46


12mo ending Sep-2011   Rev($M)   EPS($)
--------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus      71,225    16.16
Deagol estimates        83,993    20.48


Valuation (12mo beginning on)    EPS($)    25x    20x
-----------------------------    ------    ---    ---
Trailing           (Jul-2009)     13.34    334    267
Fair value         (Jul-2010)     19.05    476    381
1yr target         (Jul-2011)     24.23    606    485


Revenue breakdown:
Mac        4,125 ( 3,338 @ $1,236)
iPad       2,150 ( 3,258 @ $  660)
iPhone     5,456 ( 9,042 @ $  603)
iPod       1,655 (10,124 @ $  163)
iTunes     1,258
Software     641
Periph       465


Income statement:
Revenue   15,750
COGS       9,497
GM         6,253
OpEx       1,850
OpInc      4,403
OI&E          62
Pre-tax    4,465
Tax        1,161
NetInc     3,304
Shrs.        925
EPS         3.57


Ratios:
GM%        39.7%
OpInc%     28.0%
Tax%       26.0%
NetInc%    21.0%

Check out these fellow bloggers' estimates:

Andy Zaky: Fiscal Q3 2010 Earnings Forecast (AAPL)

Horace Dediu: Asymco estimates for Apple’s third fiscal quarter

Robert Leitao: AAPL June Quarter Estimates In Detail

Jeff Fosberg: AFB's user Mercel

Alexis Cabot: AFB's user awcabot

Turley Muller (by way of PED): How Turley Muller calls Apple

And PED's smack-down is on:

The Street awaits Apple's Q3 earnings

How many iPhones did Apple sell?

How many iPads did Apple sell in Q3?

How many iPods did Apple sell in Q3?

Let's talk about the Mac for a change

Apple randomizes web order numbers

Sometime around the middle of May I started receiving submissions of web order numbers that were out of sequence. After a major batch of contributions from June 15, I've concluded Apple has now successfully randomized these in such a way that I no longer can derive (nor estimate in any meaningful way) a count of web orders from any two or more numbers and date-time values, as I've done for 5+ years.

Here's a scatter plot of the contributions for June 15:


Here's a frequency histogram including a few more web order numbers from before and after those shown above:

And here's the raw data, in case anyone somehow mines some pattern out of it:

Timestamp(PDT)  Web number  Contributor
--------------  ----------  ------------------
05/09/10 06:11  W299136XXX  macnmaine
05/10/10 03:52  W2477497XX  michelc
05/10/10 05:48  W2293963XX  CdnPhoto
05/14/10 15:19  W2916900XX  Ghh008
05/16/10 17:40  W215139XXX  macnmaine
06/02/10 11:55  W2769957XX  centex
06/06/10 15:49  W292153XXX  macnmaine
06/14/10 18:58  W2856025XX  centex
06/15/10 09:30  W263697XXX  cotten999
06/15/10 12:51  W2462125XX  hltr
06/15/10 13:35  W2771715XX  The Scorpion Files
06/15/10 14:53  W2436969XX  braney
06/15/10 15:55  W2736754XX  DSO
06/15/10 16:22  W2670179XX  parkslope2006
06/15/10 16:32  W2755113XX  DSO
06/15/10 17:07  W216414XXX  nontekkie
06/15/10 17:12  W2488284XX  $ Bill Yall
06/15/10 18:00  W2831010XX  jamesd
06/15/10 19:19  W2111939XX  centex
06/15/10 19:22  W2659075XX  cranjo
06/15/10 19:29  W2705339XX  tradervic
06/15/10 19:30  W2562092XX  cranjo
06/15/10 19:31  W2357239XX  sensiblethoughts
06/15/10 20:00  W219790XXX  organicandnoworms
06/15/10 23:29  W2940290XX  fhatta
06/16/10 09:46  W2300058XX  Probe

This is unfortunate, but of course it won't prevent me from continuing to analyze Apple's business. I have to thank Apple for letting me get away with it for 5+ years, but most of all I'd like to thank all the fellow AAPL investors for their voluntary contributions to this effort. And Steve "Caligula" Evans for coming up with the idea in the first place and compiling those very early numbers.

But now it's time to fly solo, and hope I don't disappoint. Third quarter final estimates in a couple of weeks. They look great but I'm still tinkering with things, and we'll surely get some more info on iPhone 4 sales over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned!

iPad web usage passes iPod

So my prediction from six and a half weeks ago came through, with a couple of days to spare. iPad has surpassed iPod in web traffic. It took only two months and two million units, compared to almost 3 years and about 40 million iPod touches out there. That means iPads use the web roughly 20 times as much as iPod touches.

Also, not only has iPad more than doubled Android 2.1's share, it's now past all Android OS's combined. No idea how many units make up the Android installed base. See the whole two-month-long comparison below.

Data provided by Net Market Share

July 1st Update, they're a month late on it, but Net Market Share is mentioning it now: iPad Blows Past Android and iPod Touch in Browser Usage