Monday, July 14, 2014

Fiscal 3Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Monday's close of $96.45 AAPL is trading at a 13.0x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.8x ex-cash).

None of my estimates include any new product categories, but I do expect a new iPhone in late September and new iPads in November. Since I really doubt the market has decided to fully value Apple's current product lines as I project them (within my theory of 10x fwd EPS plus cash), it's clear that expectations about new categories for this year and next are somewhat baked into the current price. Keep this in mind as we get past the earnings report and rest of the year announcements.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     37,860     1.22
Apple guide low        36,000     1.13e  37.0
Apple guide high       38,000     1.25e  38.0
Deagol estimates       38,755     1.33   38.7 (5.98b shares)

3mo ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     40,650     1.34
Apple guide low (e)    38,000     1.28   37.5
Apple guide high(e)    40,000     1.41   38.5
Deagol estimates       41,763     1.51   38.7 (5.85b shares)

12m ending Sep-2015   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus    195,060     6.93
Deagol estimates      195,224     7.58