Monday, April 14, 2014

Fiscal 2Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $519.61 AAPL is trading at 10.5 times my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (7.5x ex-cash). The biggest impact to my estimates for the quarter and rest of CY14 is due to China Mobile ramp much slower than I originally modeled in January. Taking guidance quite seriously now, thus estimating a significant drawdown in iPhone/iPad channel inventory (about 4.5m units) resulting in a $2.5b revenue impact, which prevents grossly exceeding the top range of guidance for last quarter. Expect management to highlight sell-through numbers.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Mar-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     43,570    10.15
Apple guide low        42,000     9.46   37.0
Apple guide high       44,000    10.53   38.0
Deagol estimates       44,053    10.60   38.1 (884m shares)