Monday, April 20, 2015

Fiscal 2Q 2015 Final Estimates

As of today's market open of $125.57, AAPL now trades at a 12.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (10.0x excluding cash and next-12m div).

Refined my Apple Watch estimates but it still involves significant uncertainty. Guessing 21.75m units for the next 12 months at an ASP of $575 driving revenue of $12.5b for its first year, not including $1b from additional bands, accessories and Apple Care. Should roughly double in second year.

Expecting a dividend raise to 53 cents (+13% from 47¢) quarterly, and extension of the share repurchase program to a total $140-150b by end of calendar 2016 (currently at $90b by end of 2015).

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Mar-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    55,760          2.14
Apple guide low       52,000   38.5   1.88*
Apple guide high      55,000   39.5   2.11*
Deagol estimates      56,155   40.3   2.22 (5.83b shares)