Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Fiscal 3Q 2019 Final Estimates

As of today's close of $204.50, AAPL is trading at a 15.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (14.0x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).

Don't get fooled by the most boring quarters, like, ever. Another consecutive "no collapse" quarter is good, means last Q1 adjustments worked. Not sure why WS sees 3% rev decline in Sep after flat or slight growth in June, in any case, strong Q4 guidance may surprise (but no earns growth until Q1).

Emphasis on intriguing longer-term themes is great. Key behind-the-scenes platform and business model shifts, happening almost in slow-motion, into new services and broader ecosystem relationships eventually will have huge effects on long-term fundamentals, but ironically will be hard to notice for some time and confound most pundits.

Also hard to explain, so I'll leave it at that.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun19  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   53.4     -  2.10
Apple guide low    52.5  37.0  2.00*
Apple guide high   54.5  38.0  2.21*
My estimates       53.8  37.8  2.15 (4.59b shares)