Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Fiscal 4Q 2016 Final Estimates

As of today's market open of $117.35, AAPL is trading at a 12.6x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.3x when excluding next-12m net cash and div).

Upped FY 2017 due to better than expected response to Plus cameras and Jet Black finish, as well as even more switchers defecting from Samsung than normal. Intrigued about Watch strategy, and hope sales figures get revealed at some point next year. Also curious about what kind of repatriation tax deal is almost assured next year, as "signaled" by Tim Cook.

The stock is approaching fair valuation but current one-year target has significant upside due to FY 2018 growth potential from iPhone, Watch, and Services, and cash repatriation/capital return options (all factors modeled rather conservatively for now).

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    46,800      -   1.65
Apple guide low       45,500   37.5   1.56*
Apple guide high      47,500   38.0   1.71*
My estimates          47,522   38.2   1.71 (5.39b shares)