Monday, April 22, 2019

Fiscal 2Q 2019 Final Estimates


As of Friday's close of $203.86, AAPL is trading at a 15.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (14.3x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).


Highlights:

iPhone rev -15%/+2% annual growth in FY 19/20, low single digits thereafter.
Non-iPhone rev +16%/+10% annual growth in FY 19/20, high single digits thereafter.
Total rev -3%/+5% annual growth in FY 19/20, mid single digits thereafter.
Net income -9%/+7% annual growth in FY 19/20, mid single digits thereafter.
Quarterly dividend raised to 81/91 cents (+11%/+12%) in April 19/20.
Buybacks of $49b/$21b for FQ2/FQ3 ($63b authorized up to last Q).
$75b buyback authorization expansion, $80b buyback over 1y ending March 2020.
$65b buyback 1y ending March 2021, approximately $50b/y thereafter.


Detailed estimates:


3mo ending Mar19  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   57.4     -  2.36
Apple guide low    55.0  37.0  2.18*
Apple guide high   59.0  38.0  2.54*
My estimates       57.7  37.8  2.45 (4.62b shares)