Monday, October 30, 2023

Fiscal 4Q 2023 Final Estimates

As of Friday's closing price of $168.22, AAPL trades at a 23.8x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (23.4x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).

First of all, sorry for missing last quarter. I had some issues adapting in time to a new version of Excel, still getting used to somewhat annoying new quirks. I should've planned it a couple months before crunch time, my bad.

Hopefully estimates are about done getting revised down. It wasn't like just a weak quarter or two but more gradual, with the impact mostly felt cumulatively over the last two years. As an illustrative reference point, a year ago I was expecting Rev/EPS for this FY of $431.4b/$7.12, which now ended up at $385.6b/$6.11 (-11%/-14%), and FY24 projected EPS of $7.61 now down to $7.06 (-7%) might still be slightly optimistic. But I feel the downward revisions are getting smaller (see vertical revision arrows in chart detail below).

Nonetheless, the mid/long-term projection has been more resilient, holding up at mid/high single-digits growth in Rev/EPS, in essence the only change being it stalled for the last couple of years, as the expected post-pandemic growth slowdown turned out more like a pause.

Product-wise, need a strong lineup for Mac and iPad to overcome this post-pandemic dip. We'll see what tonight's event offers for Mac, but must revitalize iPad in the spring to justify my return to growth next year. Don't expect any discernible impact from Vision Pro for the next 2-3 years. Margins look incredible, driven by continued mix shift into Services.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep23  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   89.3     -  1.39
My estimates       91.9  44.5  1.45 (15.68b shares)