Monday, October 25, 2021

Fiscal 4Q 2021 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $148.69, AAPL trades at a 23.2x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (22.6x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).

Market continues to ignore past scorching growth performance in fear of having seen demand pull-forward so subsequent stagnation or declines must be right around the corner. A slowdown from last year's growth is inevitable, but far from stagnation given the still incipient adoption of the latest drivers (5G, Apple Silicon, new Services) by the billion-plus user base.

Persistent industry-wide component shortages potentially stretching into next year suggests demand remains strong, but somehow still provides yet another "flawless flawgic" catch-22 for naysayers: either demand evaporates as people already got their tech fix, or will be strong but can't meet it due to shortages. This in tandem with the tired threat of regulation punishing any and all success, or the inane taper tantrums as if negative real rates provided an attractive incentive for traders hooked on growth, gives smart and patient investors a great opportunity (wait, no, not crypto).