Fiscal 4Q 2009 Final Estimates

Update: PED's Earnings Smack-down is up! LOL

Check back here Monday at 4:30 pm EDT for the results.

3mo ending Sep-2009:

F4Q09     Revenue($B)  EPS($)    GM%
-----     -----------  ------  -----
Apple guidance   8.80    1.21  34.0%
Analysts cons.   9.19    1.42     ?
My estimate      9.32    1.53  36.2%
My non-GAAP e.  11.28    2.52  41.2%

Product  Units(M)
-------  --------
Mac          2.85
iPhone       7.30
iPod        10.30

3mo ending Dec-2009   Revenue($B)       EPS($)
.                    -------------   ------------
F1Q10                 GAAP  n-GAAP   GAAP  n-GAAP
------------------   -----  ------   ----  ------
Analysts consensus   11.44       ?   1.91       ?
Deagol's estimates   12.07   13.71   2.20    3.02
Apple guidance (e)   11.45   13.00   1.75    2.60

12mo ending Sep-2010   Revenue($B)       EPS($)
.                     -------------   ------------
FY10                   GAAP  n-GAAP   GAAP  n-GAAP
------------------    -----  ------   ----  ------
Analysts consensus    42.44       ?   7.05       ?
Deagol's estimates    45.80   49.67   8.04    9.97

Stock valuation:           EPS(e)        PPS(25x)
.                       ------------   ------------
Window  12mo starting   GAAP  n-GAAP   GAAP  n-GAAP
------  -------------   ----  ------   ----  ------
Trailing       Jan-09   6.41    9.52    160     238
Fair value     Jan-10   8.54   10.19    214     255
1-year target  Oct-10   9.83   11.17    246     279

Revenue breakdown:
Mac       3581 ( 2.854M @ $1255)
iPhone    2265 ( 7.300M @ $ 545)
iPod      1502 (10.300M @ $ 146)
Music      961
Software   676
Periph     338
--------  ----
Total     9322

Income statement:
Revenue   9322
COGS      5948
GM        3375
OpEx      1440
OpInc     1935
OI&E        33
Pre-tax   1968
Tax        573
NetInc    1395
Shrs.      913
EPS       1.53

Ratios:
GM%      36.2%
OpInc%   20.8%
Tax%     29.1%
NetInc%  15.0%