Thursday, December 23, 2010

Fiscal 1Q 2011 Final Estimates

Apple now trading at 12.9 times my fwd EPS estimate (10.5x after excluding cash)

I might adjust things a bit if there's any announcement in January.

3mo ending Dec-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance         23,000     4.80
Analysts consensus     24,110     5.29
Deagol estimates       26,071     6.23

3mo ending Mar-2011   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guide (est.)     20.000     4.00
Analysts consensus     20,060     4.28
Deagol estimates       21,713     5.07

12m ending Sep-2011   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus     88,300    19.18
Deagol estimates       96,111    22.87

Valuation (12mo beginning on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  15x  20x  25x
-----------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ---  ---
Trailing           (Jan-2010)    17.70  73%  266  354  443
Fair value         (Jan-2011)    25.16  42%  377  503  629
1yr target         (Jan-2012)    31.55  25%  473  631  789

Revenue breakdown:
Mac        5,579 ( 4,295 @ $1,299)
iPad       4,295 ( 6,541 @ $  657)
iPhone    10,255 (16,517 @ $  621)
iPod       3,151 (19,346 @ $  163)
iTunes     1,473
Software     722
Periph       597

Income statement:
Revenue   26,071
COGS      16,155
GM         9,917
OpEx       2,366
OpInc      7,550
OI&E          64
Pre-tax    7,614
Tax        1,789
NetInc     5,825
Shrs.        935
EPS         6.23

GM%        38.0%
OpInc%     29.0%
Tax%       23.5%
NetInc%    22.3%

Check out these fellow bloggers' estimates:
18 AFB members: The AFB AAPL FQ1 Estimate Index (Jan01)
Patrick Smellie: AFB member pats (Dec29)
Dennis Hildebrand: Q1 2011 projection (Dec28)
Mark Beauch: AFB member mbeauch (Dec27)
Jeff Fosberg: AFB member Mercel (Dec27)
Alexis Cabot: AFB member awcabot (Dec23)
Turley Muller: N/A

Keep an eye on Apple 2.0 for PED's pros vs. bloggers smack-down:


Anonymous said...

Are the "12 month valuation" estimates offset by one year?

thanks for the research and effort in putting this together.


Ron said...

@ JohnG - if you read the heading on that valuation table, it reads:

Valuation (12 mo beginning on)

Stefan said...

Nice work.
I can see them making your units and revenues, but, I'm a little more conservative on %GM and Tax rate. %PM of 22.3% is their second highest ever. Hope you are right.
Great work and thanks for sharing.


Federico said...

I believe your gm is too low. Try 40 percent. Base on your hardware totals, the iTunes, peripheral and software is also low. Your gross should be 26.8 billion. Your net percent should be At least 23.5.

Anyway my take is a gross of at least 28 billion and eps of 7.17.

Anonymous said...

Does AAPL get to count the revenue from Gift Cards immediately, or do they have to wait until after the cards redeemed?

Daniel Tello said...

Gift cards revenue is recognized when redeemed

Alan said...

Great job. For your iPad estimate of 6.5M - I recall reading (probably through Digitimes so take that for what it's worth) that they hit 2M / month production around september. Are you assuming they have passed that production milestone or do you base your estimates more on sales channel numbers?

Roel said...

Thanks for posting! This was an Apple christmas and your past record is great, so I will agree with your estimates.

It is unbelievable that they now show a $354 price for a 20x trailing P/E in january and the P/E ratio is now about 21.5 (Ill use trailing because everybody refers to it). If the P/E stays at 21.5, we would see the price of AAPL go to $380 with a market cap of almost 350 B. Those numbers are kind of incredible for most investors.

If Federico is right and EPS hit 7, Apple could be the most valuable public company in the USA very soon.

What is your take on what will happen with the price a few days after another blowout quarter like this? Will it stay at 20x trailing P/E?

Horace Dediu said...

I just looked back at my October 21 predictions:

Decided only to adjust the tax rate a bit to get 5.90 EPS.

Pretty close to your call on most lines. I guess we differ on margin mostly.

Revenue: $25,498 million
EPS: 5.90
iPhone unit sales: 16,163 k
iPod unit sales: 18,873 k
Mac unit sales: 4,303 k
iPad unit sales: 6,000 k
Gross margin percentage: 37.5%

Anonymous said...

As always, your work is both valuable and appreciated.


iphoned said...

Very nice

What share count are you using? 930m? 950? Accounting for the share count growth?

Daniel Tello said...

iphoned, from the income statement section above:

NetInc 5,825
Shrs. 935
EPS 6.23

Anonymous said...

Repeating a question from above:

"What is your take on what will happen with the price a few days after another blowout quarter like this? Will it stay at 20x trailing P/E?"

Daniel Tello said...

The VZ announcement may be confounding things a bit right now, but let's assume the current $342.50 is the market's "fair" pricing of 20x trailing EPS. That means $5.65 is priced in (compare to consensus of $5.31 and whisper of $5.90), and if my $6.23 comes through, should justify $354.

However, my thesis is that stocks should be valued on a forward basis (at least 5 years is required for DCF but a multiple on next twelve months EPS might be a convenient approximation). As shown above I'm estimating north of $25 EPS for this calendar year, and I expect the market to eventually move to at least a 15x forward multiple which would yield $375+ as analysts catch up over the following days/weeks after earnings. The problem is they most likely won't raise next 12 months earnings enough (they're at $22.60 for FY2012, a 15x multiple, but that timeframe is in fact 3 quarters after my $25). So, it's possible AAPL stays below $360-370 until April's report, even after upwards revisions. Actual VZ iPhone sales and launch of iPad 2 should help get AAPL into the $400-450 range by then.

Of course this is all speculation on my part. The market can do pretty silly things.

Anonymous said...

Appreciate the effort! I would be one happy camper if AAPL made these numbers in aggregate. My guess would be a little closer to $6.15 EPS, based mainly on less optimistic margin numbers... But a blowout none the less!

Roy in San Jose said...

Wow, with the Monday morning announcement of Steve Jobs' LOA, it looks like AAPL is about to get sucked into a whirlwind of pure market psychology that has nothing to do with its fundamentals.

Any thoughts on what % of the stock price is purely attributable to Steve Jobs?

Anonymous said...

I can see a 10-15% drop in the market, but it will be a great opportunity to buy.

Apple will continue to sell superior products. Think people will now consider the competition because Jobs is at home?

Roy in San Jose said...

Wow! Congratulations, Daniel. I think you nailed it better than anyone else! $9.8B in cash flow!!!

Daniel Tello said...

Thanks Roy. I think Turley edged me and everyone out with his last minute revision. Congrats Turley!

Anonymous said...

I've been following you for a while now, and thanks are in order. I and my wife and our account thank you.

cmupload said...

Congratulations deagol.