A cash balance of $409 per share is estimated by June 2016, and $432 by the end of that Fiscal Year in September 2016, still surpassing the current market price within 5 years from now (this assumes no dividends so if you're reading this in 2016 remember to add back any of those plus interest).
As for the most recent past, and immediate future:
3mo ending Dec-2011 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guidance 37,000 9.30 Analysts consensus 38,280 9.87 Deagol estimates 41,895 11.58 3mo ending Mar-2012 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guide (est.) 34,500 8.60 Analysts consensus 31,530 7.87 Deagol estimates 39,133 11.13 12m ending Sep-2012 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 138,120 32.68 Deagol estimates 165,349 46.03 Valuation (12mo ending on) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Cash Tot -------------------------- ------ --- --- ---- --- Trailing (Dec-2011) 32.82 83% 328 98 426 Fair value (Dec-2012) 49.85 52% 498 147 645 1yr target (Dec-2013) 64.31 29% 643 209 852 Revenue breakdown ($M): Mac 6,359 ( 5,005 × $1,270) iPod 2,710 (16,000 × $169) iPhone 20,531 (32,500 × $632) iPad 8,819 (14,500 × $608) iTunes 1,932 Periph 737 Software 808 Income statement ($M): Revenue 41,895 COGS 24,280 GM 17,615 OpEx 3,341 OpInc 14,274 OI&E 112 Pre-tax 14,386 Tax 3,453 NetInc 10,933 Shrs. 944 EPS $11.58 Ratios: GM% 42.0% OpInc% 34.1% Tax% 24.0% NetInc% 26.1%
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6 comments:
Good to see you back! I've got no reservations about this quarter, but as always the guidance will set the tone. If they really do guide in the $8.50+ range we should be looking good.
I've got about $12 with more iPhones and Mac, but less iPod and iPads. I don't have "channel checkers" out there, so inside of some error tolerance, it is all intelligent guessing anyway.
For the FY EPS, I have a bit less than $46 and up to $48. It all depends on when the next iPhone will be released.
Thanks for sharing.
Stefan
Do you still have your spreadsheet available? I'm interested in seeing your EPS revision history. Hoping it continues to rise. Thanks
I just wanted to offer congratulations for missing by almost as much this quarter on the other side. :-) I believe that your long position should be paying off tomorrow. I guess this proves that last quarter was the outlier and this quarter we are right back where we ought to be. Go Apple!
Strong hints that there will be dividends in the future. Can anyone speculate what these dividends might look like?
They have $60B held outside and 33 Billion
held inside. They will easily generate another
$15 Billion held inside in 2012. Given all this,
assuming they want to keep $20B+ U.S. money on the books,
they can easily payout $15B a year. So I would round it
to $4 quarter dividend per share.
That is the low bound. They can go higher.
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