These changes result in about $3 billion lower revenue and $0.80 lower EPS for the quarter. The gross margin percent goes up about 70 basis points on the higher iPhone mix.
Additionally, I took this opportunity to tweak the longer-term projections to account for the new products introduced yesterday. Here are the usual details:
3mo ending Sep-2012 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guidance 34,000 7.65 Analysts consensus 35,800 8.75 Deagol estimates 36,063 9.68 3mo ending Dec-2012 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Deagol estimates 59,409 17.79 Analysts consensus 54,980 15.41 Apple guide (est.) 52,200 13.60 12m ending Sep-2013 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Deagol estimates 211,812 62.97 Analysts consensus 193,970 53.24 Valuation (12mo ending on) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Cash Div Tot -------------------------- ------ --- --- ---- --- ---- Trailing (Sep-2012) 45.18 63% 452 130 3 585 Fair value (Sep-2013) 62.97 39% 630 177 11 818 1yr target (Sep-2014) 81.50 29% 815 237 15 1067 F4Q12 Revenue breakdown ($M): Mac 6,037 ( 4,878 × $1,238) iPod 872 ( 5,600 × $156) iPhone 17,627 (28,000 × $630) iPad 7,789 (14,650 × $532) iTunes 2,144 Periph 729 Software 864 Income statement ($M): Revenue 36,063 COGS 20,382 GM 15,681 OpEx 3,516 OpInc 12,165 OI&E 178 Pre-tax 12,343 Tax 3,147 NetInc 9,195 Shrs. 950 EPS $9.68 Ratios: GM% 43.5% OpInc% 33.7% Tax% 25.5% NetInc% 25.5%
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3 comments:
Daniel: Thanks for your ongoing analysis of Apple. Tonight I looked back at the archives and some of the things we were talking about in 2009 and 2010. It's hard to believe how much Apple has grown and how accurate you have been with your projections. Looking at history reveals the truth.
Jack Tunnicliffe
What do you think of the guidance for the next quarter. Do you really believe margins will drop so much? It seems the Rev number is so high, given the EPS guidance. Thanks. Miguel Octavio
Would love to hear your comments on what's going on with the stock price. This seems insane given the profits and cash Apple is amassing, yet the analysts have gone cold on Apple forward looking.
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