Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Mar-2013 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Apple guidance(mid) 42,000 9.74 (implied 947m diluted shares) Analysts consensus 42,590 10.07 Deagol estimates 44,112 11.04 3mo ending Jun-2013 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Deagol estimates 41,175 10.17 Analysts consensus 39,340 9.08 Apple guide (est.) 39,000 8.95 (implied 38% GM) 12m ending Sep-2014 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Deagol estimates 210,117 56.10 Analysts consensus 203,630 49.02 Valuation (12mo ending on) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Cash Div Tot -------------------------- ------ --- --- ---- --- ---- Trailing (Mar-2013) 42.84 4% 428 152 8 588 Fair value (Mar-2014) 52.39 22% 524 188 11 723 1yr target (Mar-2015) 59.32 13% 593 232 11 836 F2Q13 Revenue breakdown ($M): Mac 5,620 ( 4,250 × $1,322) iPod 1,040 ( 6,500 × $160) iPhone 24,203 (39,000 × $621) iPad 7,967 (18,500 × $431) iT/S/S 3,872 Accssr 1,410 Income statement ($M): Revenue 44,112 COGS 26,625 GM 17,487 OpEx 3,827 OpInc 13,660 OI&E 380 Pre-tax 14,040 Tax 3,580 NetInc 10,460 Shrs. 947 EPS $11.04 Ratios: GM% 39.6% OpInc% 31.0% Tax% 25.5% NetInc% 23.7%
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8 comments:
Thumbs up! And fingers crossed....
Daniel:
Two responses, take your pick.
1) YOU nailed it! YOU'RE the MAN!
OR
2) What happened? How could you be so far off?
artman, at this point I'll happily take 2: far off (underestimated) ;)
Deagol, Gregg Thurman here.
I like your estimates. They are a bit more conservative than my own (revenue $45.150 EPS $11.50), but close enough to make me happy if Apple prints yours vs mine.
Thanks Gregg I'll be rooting for yours
Hi Deagol,
Why did you post theses estimates so late? You usually post them about a week before...
Anyway, your estimates are much higher than mine (I'm expecting very close to Apple's guidance).
Thanks.
NR
Daniel
With Apple presumably issuing guidance that is close to what they expect to report, how are you estimating figures that greatly exceed theirs? What gives you confidence that what you are modeling will prove accurate?
Thanks
Hi, Daniel,
Well looks like you were right on the revenue (or close enough) but the pros were right on the eps. The juxtaposition of those two is very, very interesting to me, and suggests that Apple shipped a boarload of iOS products! For the growth of the ecosystem, that's huge. And they reflected that focus on the ecosystem in their comments. I'm totally on board with them on that focus.
They've also indicated low numbers for next quarter, but again, I don't trust their revenue number. My guess is that revenue will beat yet again. I think margins will be low though. Once again, I think we'll see a massive increase yoy in devices sold, though. I really think that's the story that everyone's missing. It's relatively easy for Samsung to get its featurephone customers to buy its smartphones. Apple doesn't have old featurephone customers, and can only grownits customer base one new convert at a time.
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